Toulouse 3–2 Le Havre
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.95–2.34.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Toulouse to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 55% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Le Havre created the better chances — the xG read 1.9–2.3 and the shot count agreed (14–18, 5–7 on target). Toulouse's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.9 xG, 5 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 3–2 flatters Toulouse — on chances created, Le Havre shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Toulouse 4-2-3-1
- 3 M. McKenzie (D)
- 5 S. Koumbassa (D)
- 8 T. Jørgensen (M)
- 12 C. Tapé (D)
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe (F)
- 14 N. Sigur (D)
- 16 G. Restes (G)
- 20 C. Tengstedt (M)
- 22 R. Messali (M)
- 23 C. Cásseres (M)
- 37 Y. Azizi (M)
Bench: M. Amougou, A. Dønnum, S. Hidalgo, M. Niflore, D. Odogu, S. Oppong, N. Schmidt, Julián Vignolo, A. Vossah
Le Havre 3-4-2-1
- 5 A. Touba (D)
- 7 A. Richardson (M)
- 9 J. Maja (F)
- 12 E. Jelert (M)
- 15 A. Seko (D)
- 20 D. Ouziad (M)
- 23 V. Sasso (D)
- 25 M. Samatta (M)
- 26 S. Ebonog (M)
- 38 R. Fofana (M)
- 93 G. Gallon (G)
Bench: A. Bodart, I. Bouneb, K. Mizuta, D. Mosengo, J. Mwanga, S. Nakamura, R. Ndiaye, E. Koffi Vinette, M. Ndiaye
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Toulouse or draw | 1.20 | 79.1% | +1.0 pts |
| Double chance Le Havre or draw | 2.13 | 44.5% | -3.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 76.4% | +2.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Toulouse | 1.28 | 73.1% | +3.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Le Havre | 3.48 | 26.9% | -3.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 78.9% | +6.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57.8% | +8.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.51 | 37.2% | +7.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.63 | 57.0% | +5.2 pts |
| Toulouse over 1.5 team goals | 1.62 | 58.3% | +8.3 pts |
| Le Havre over 1.5 team goals | 3.08 | 30.6% | +3.1 pts |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -5.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.24 · 2-1 7.74 · 1-0 8.22 · 2-0 8.74 · 3-1 11.85
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 26 | Le Havre | 2-1 | Toulouse |
| 02 Nov 25 | Toulouse | 0-0 | Le Havre |