Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 19:45 BST
Toulouse
v Le Havre
The model's read
Toulouse
54%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
Le Havre
21%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Toulouse or draw | 79.2% |
| Double chance Le Havre or draw | 46.3% |
| Double chance either team | 74.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% |
| Toulouse over 1.5 team goals | 53.3% |
| Le Havre over 1.5 team goals | 27.9% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 35.3% |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 16.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.1% · 2-1 9.8% · 1-0 9.5% · 2-0 9.4% · 0-0 7.0%
Model readiness. Toulouse has played 4 league games this season, Le Havre 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Toulouse
52%
market implied · price 1.83
Draw
26%
market implied · price 3.57
Le Havre
22%
market implied · price 4.30
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Toulouse or draw | 1.21 | 78.1% | 79.2% | +1.1 |
| Double chance Le Havre or draw | 1.96 | 47.9% | 46.3% | -1.7 |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.0% | 74.6% | +0.6 |
| Draw no bet — Toulouse | 1.33 | 70.1% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Le Havre | 3.12 | 29.9% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 72.9% | 78.4% | +5.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 49.6% | 53.6% | +4.1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.15 | 29.8% | 31.4% | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51.8% | 54.9% | +3.1 |
| Toulouse over 1.5 team goals | 1.87 | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.3 |
| Le Havre over 1.5 team goals | 3.41 | 27.5% | 27.9% | +0.4 |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | 35.3% | -2.2 |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | 16.8% | -4.0 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.52 · 1-0 6.89 · 2-1 7.96 · 2-0 8.34 · 0-0 9.52
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:05 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Toulouse over 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.87 implies a 50% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 56%. A 6-point disagreement.
- over 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.92 implies a 50% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 55%. A 6-point disagreement.
- over 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.54 implies a 37% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 42%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Toulouse -1 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 2.50 implies a 38% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 43%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Toulouse over 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.72 implies a 35% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 40%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Toulouse winning — the market’s price of 1.83 implies a 52% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 56%. A 4-point disagreement.
1 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Toulouse
- Toulouse are winless in their last 4 league games (D2 L2).
- Toulouse have conceded in each of their last 10 league games.
Le Havre
- Le Havre are winless in their last 4 league games (D2 L2).
- Only 1 of Le Havre's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Le Havre's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- C. Cásseres has 0 goals and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- G. Restes has made 8 saves in 3 league games this season.
- L. Mpasi has made 17 saves in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Toulouse
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Lorient (A) | — |
| 03 Sep | L | 0-1 | Lille (H) | 3.5 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Stade Brestois 29 (A) | 1.1 - 2.0 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-2 | Lyon (H) | 2.6 - 0.2 |
| 10 May | W | 2-1 | Lyon (H) | 1.1 - 1.5 |
| 03 May | W | 2-1 | Strasbourg (A) | 1.4 - 0.4 |
Recent form — Le Havre
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Angers (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-2 | Stade Brestois 29 (H) | 2.0 - 2.4 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Lyon (A) | 0.7 - 1.6 |
| 23 Aug | L | 0-1 | Monaco (H) | 0.6 - 1.4 |
| 17 May | W | 2-0 | Lorient (A) | 1.2 - 1.3 |
| 10 May | L | 0-1 | Marseille (H) | 1.1 - 1.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Toulouse
+1.28
xG diff/game · 2.40 for, 1.13 against
Le Havre
-0.70
xG diff/game · 1.09 for, 1.79 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 4–7 | DLDL |
| Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 2–4 | DLDL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-0-2 | 0.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
| Le Havre | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-1-0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Toulouse 5 wins, 2 draws, Le Havre 3 wins — 2.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 26 | Le Havre | 2-1 | Toulouse |
| 02 Nov 25 | Toulouse | 0-0 | Le Havre |