VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia Dortmund
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.87–1.34.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured VfB Stuttgart to win (41%); it finished with Borussia Dortmund to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 34% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
The xG read 0.9–1.3 in Borussia Dortmund's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 12–13 overall and 5–2 on target went VfB Stuttgart's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. VfB Stuttgart's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.9 xG despite 5 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
- 1 F. Bredlow (G)
- 4 J. Vagnoman (M)
- 6 A. Stiller (M)
- 7 M. Mittelstädt (D)
- 9 E. Demirović (F)
- 10 C. Führich (M)
- 11 B. El Khannouss (F)
- 21 G. Prömel (M)
- 24 J. Chabot (D)
- 26 D. Undav (F)
- 29 Finn Jeltsch (D)
Bench: N. Nartey, D. Pejčinović, L. Sauer, A. Al Dakhil, M. Funk, R. Hendriks, Y. Spalt, A. Karazor, J. Leweling
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
- 1 G. Kobel (G)
- 3 W. Anton (D)
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck (D)
- 8 F. Nmecha (M)
- 9 S. Guirassy (F)
- 14 M. Beier (F)
- 18 E. Nwaneri (F)
- 22 Kouakou Joane Gadou (D)
- 24 D. Svensson (M)
- 25 J. Veerman (M)
- 26 J. Ryerson (M)
Bench: C. Chukwuemeka, S. Inacio, K. Karetsas, A. Meyer, L. Reggiani, M. Sabitzer, Fábio Silva, J. Bellingham, R. Bensebaïni
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw | 1.46 | 64.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw | 1.56 | 60.7% | +2.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.8% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfB Stuttgart | 1.82 | 51.1% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Borussia Dortmund | 1.90 | 48.9% | +2.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 86.0% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 68.7% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.92 | 49.9% | +1.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.32 | 70.6% | +1.4 pts |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 team goals | 1.71 | 55.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 team goals | 1.79 | 52.8% | +2.2 pts |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -1.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.40 · 2-2 9.35 · 2-1 9.92 · 1-2 10.08 · 1-0 14.62
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 26 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 22 Nov 25 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-3 | VfB Stuttgart |