Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 17:30 BST
VfB Stuttgart
v Borussia Dortmund
The model's read
VfB Stuttgart
41%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
Borussia Dortmund
34%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw | 66.2% |
| Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw | 58.9% |
| Double chance either team | 74.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 team goals | 51.2% |
| Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 team goals | 45.7% |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 21.3% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 17.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.2% · 2-1 8.7% · 1-2 7.8% · 2-2 6.7% · 2-0 5.7%
Model readiness. VfB Stuttgart has played 4 league games this season, Borussia Dortmund 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
VfB Stuttgart
41%
market implied · price 2.32
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.77
Borussia Dortmund
34%
market implied · price 2.74
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw | 1.43 | 65.7% | 66.2% | +0.5 |
| Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw | 1.61 | 58.4% | 58.9% | +0.5 |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.9% | 74.9% | -1.0 |
| Draw no bet — VfB Stuttgart | 1.74 | 53.8% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Borussia Dortmund | 2.03 | 46.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 84.9% | 84.7% | -0.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.38 | 67.7% | 63.3% | -4.4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.99 | 48.2% | 41.1% | -7.0 |
| Both teams to score | 1.34 | 69.2% | 65.6% | -3.6 |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 team goals | 1.69 | 55.7% | 51.2% | -4.5 |
| Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 team goals | 1.85 | 50.6% | 45.7% | -4.9 |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | 21.3% | +2.4 |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | 17.9% | +0.8 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.42 · 2-1 9.38 · 2-2 9.86 · 1-2 10.02 · 1-0 14.46
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- under 3.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.85 implies a 52% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 57%. A 6-point disagreement.
- VfB Stuttgart under 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.58 implies a 60% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 65%. A 6-point disagreement.
- under 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.33 implies a 40% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 45%. A 5-point disagreement.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
VfB Stuttgart
- Both teams have scored in each of VfB Stuttgart's last 8 league games.
- VfB Stuttgart have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
- VfB Stuttgart have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund have won their last 5 league games.
Players in form
- J. Vagnoman has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- F. Bredlow has made 14 saves in 3 league games this season.
- S. Guirassy is averaging a 8.2 match rating over 3 league games this season.
- F. Nmecha has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Fábio Silva has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — VfB Stuttgart
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim (A) | — |
| 09 Sep | W | 3-1 | Viking (H) | — |
| 04 Sep | W | 4-1 | 1. FC Köln (H) | 3.5 - 2.9 |
| 28 Aug | L | 1-5 | Bayern München (A) | 0.9 - 3.9 |
| 16 May | D | 2-2 | Eintracht Frankfurt (A) | 1.3 - 2.6 |
| 09 May | W | 3-1 | Bayer Leverkusen (H) | 3.0 - 0.5 |
Recent form — Borussia Dortmund
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | W | 3-0 | SC Paderborn 07 (H) | — |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-2 | Villarreal (H) | 2.8 - 1.3 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim (A) | 2.0 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-0 | Hamburger SV (H) | 1.5 - 0.9 |
| 16 May | W | 2-0 | Werder Bremen (A) | 2.7 - 0.5 |
| 08 May | W | 3-2 | Eintracht Frankfurt (H) | 1.9 - 1.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
VfB Stuttgart
-1.23
xG diff/game · 2.17 for, 3.40 against
Borussia Dortmund
+0.73
xG diff/game · 1.77 for, 1.04 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 6–8 | LWL |
| Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 8–2 | WWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 4.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| Borussia Dortmund | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 5 wins, 2 draws, Borussia Dortmund 3 wins — 3.6 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 26 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 22 Nov 25 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-3 | VfB Stuttgart |