Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 14:30 BST
Werder Bremen
v FC Augsburg
The model's read
Werder Bremen
43%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
FC Augsburg
31%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Werder Bremen or draw | 69.1% |
| Double chance FC Augsburg or draw | 56.6% |
| Double chance either team | 74.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.5% |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 team goals | 50.5% |
| FC Augsburg over 1.5 team goals | 41.0% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 24.5% |
| FC Augsburg clean sheet | 18.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.8% · 2-1 9.1% · 1-2 7.5% · 1-0 6.6% · 2-0 6.5%
Model readiness. Werder Bremen has played 3 league games this season, FC Augsburg 3 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Werder Bremen
41%
market implied · price 2.29
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.79
FC Augsburg
34%
market implied · price 2.77
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Werder Bremen or draw | 1.43 | 66.0% | 69.1% | +3.1 |
| Double chance FC Augsburg or draw | 1.60 | 58.7% | 56.6% | -2.1 |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.3% | -1.0 |
| Draw no bet — Werder Bremen | 1.71 | 54.8% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — FC Augsburg | 2.07 | 45.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 83.6% | 82.6% | -1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 65.7% | 59.8% | -5.9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.12 | 45.1% | 37.5% | -7.6 |
| Both teams to score | 1.38 | 67.2% | 62.6% | -4.6 |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 team goals | 1.73 | 54.2% | 50.5% | -3.7 |
| FC Augsburg over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.7% | 41.0% | -7.7 |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | 24.5% | +3.8 |
| FC Augsburg clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | 18.4% | +1.2 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.71 · 2-1 9.24 · 1-2 9.93 · 2-2 10.07 · 1-0 12.86
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- under 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.18 implies a 43% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 51%. An 8-point disagreement.
- under 3.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.74 implies a 55% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 62%. A 7-point disagreement.
- FC Augsburg under 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.83 implies a 51% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 57%. A 6-point disagreement.
- Werder Bremen under 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.52 implies a 62% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 68%. A 6-point disagreement.
- FC Augsburg under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.14 implies a 30% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 35%. A 5-point disagreement.
- under 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.73 implies a 34% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 40%. A 5-point disagreement.
1 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen have conceded in each of their last 10 league games.
FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
Players in form
- N. Füllkrug has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- M. Grüll has 1 goal and 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
- K. Hein has made 9 saves in 3 league games this season.
- M. Gregoritsch has scored 3 goals in 3 league games this season.
- F. Dahmen has made 14 saves in 3 league games this season.
- F. Rieder has 1 goal and 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Werder Bremen
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | 1. FC Köln (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-1 | RB Leipzig (H) | 0.9 - 1.5 |
| 30 Aug | L | 1-4 | SC Freiburg (A) | 0.5 - 1.9 |
| 16 May | L | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund (H) | 0.5 - 2.7 |
| 09 May | L | 0-1 | 1899 Hoffenheim (A) | 1.1 - 1.5 |
| 02 May | L | 1-3 | FC Augsburg (H) | 1.4 - 2.6 |
Recent form — FC Augsburg
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Bayer Leverkusen (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | W | 4-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt (A) | 1.1 - 2.2 |
| 30 Aug | W | 3-0 | FC Schalke 04 (H) | 3.5 - 1.5 |
| 16 May | L | 0-4 | Union Berlin (A) | 0.6 - 3.7 |
| 09 May | W | 3-1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) | 2.6 - 1.1 |
| 02 May | W | 3-1 | Werder Bremen (A) | 2.6 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Werder Bremen
-1.00
xG diff/game · 0.71 for, 1.72 against
FC Augsburg
+0.45
xG diff/game · 2.33 for, 1.88 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1.333 | 5–6 | DWL |
| FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2.333 | 9–3 | DWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| FC Augsburg | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 4.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Werder Bremen 3 wins, 2 draws, FC Augsburg 5 wins — 2.3 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 26 | Werder Bremen | 1-3 | FC Augsburg |
| 20 Dec 25 | FC Augsburg | 0-0 | Werder Bremen |