Wrexham
v Southampton
The preview
Wrexham head into this Championship meeting with Southampton winless in their last three league games (D2 L1), sitting on 7 points from 7 played, with a home record this season of three games and two draws, no wins. Southampton arrive unbeaten in six (W4 D2), on 10 points from 7 played, having scored and conceded in each of their last eight league games. C. Larin has scored 7 goals in 7 league games this season, while F. Azaz has 3 goals and 4 assists in 7 games. The model rates Wrexham's win at 41%, the draw at 29%, and Southampton's win at 31%, with both teams to score at 54%.
Machine-written from our own data — recorded results, the table and the model’s probabilities — and checked line by line: every number must come from that data, and it describes what has happened, not what will. Not a tip · written 16 Sep 09:35 BST.
The model's read
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Wrexham or draw | 64.7% |
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 64.6% |
| Double chance either team | 70.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% |
| Wrexham over 1.5 team goals | 36.2% |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 36.1% |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 28.2% |
| Southampton clean sheet | 28.2% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.0% · 0-0 9.2% · 1-0 8.8% · 0-1 8.8% · 2-1 8.1%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Wrexham or draw | 1.61 | 58.3% | 64.7% | +6.4 |
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 1.36 | 68.9% | 64.6% | -4.2 |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 72.8% | 70.7% | -2.2 |
| Draw no bet — Wrexham | 2.19 | 42.7% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Southampton | 1.63 | 57.3% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.2% | 73.2% | -1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 53.4% | 46.5% | -6.9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.83 | 33.0% | 25.0% | -8.0 |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 | 57.8% | 52.9% | -4.9 |
| Wrexham over 1.5 team goals | 2.42 | 38.5% | 36.2% | -2.3 |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 2.04 | 45.8% | 36.1% | -9.7 |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | 28.2% | +6.5 |
| Southampton clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | 28.2% | +0.5 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.40 · 1-2 8.80 · 0-1 8.97 · 2-1 10.11 · 1-0 10.14
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:02 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Southampton under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.86 implies a 32% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 44%. A 12-point disagreement.
- Southampton under 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.72 implies a 54% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 64%. A 10-point disagreement.
- under 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.58 implies a 59% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 68%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Wrexham, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.19 implies a 43% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 50%. An 8-point disagreement.
- under 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.02 implies a 47% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 53%. A 7-point disagreement.
- Wrexham or the draw — the market’s price of 1.61 implies a 58% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 65%. A 7-point disagreement.
7 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Availability and rotation
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Wrexham
- Wrexham are winless in their last 3 league games (D2 L1).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Wrexham's last 6 home league games.
Southampton
- Southampton are unbeaten in their last 6 league games (W4 D2).
- Both teams have scored in each of Southampton's last 8 league games.
- Southampton have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Southampton's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- A. Patterson has made 16 saves in 7 league games this season.
- K. Moore has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- J. Ekomié has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- C. Larin has scored 7 goals in 7 league games this season.
- F. Azaz has 3 goals and 4 assists in 7 league games this season.
- Daniel Peretz has made 19 saves in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Wrexham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | L | 0-6 | West Ham (A) | — |
| 08 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (H) | 1.3 - 1.5 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Swansea (A) | 0.7 - 0.7 |
| 02 Sep | W | 3-0 | Millwall (A) | 0.9 - 0.2 |
| 28 Aug | L | 1-2 | Birmingham (H) | 1.4 - 1.9 |
| 22 Aug | D | 1-1 | Watford (H) | 0.8 - 0.3 |
Recent form — Southampton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | W | 4-1 | Bristol City (H) | — |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-1 | Swansea (H) | 1.4 - 1.2 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Lincoln (A) | 0.8 - 2.3 |
| 01 Sep | D | 1-1 | Birmingham (A) | 1.0 - 1.6 |
| 29 Aug | W | 5-1 | Millwall (H) | 3.6 - 1.4 |
| 22 Aug | W | 3-1 | Stoke City (H) | 0.6 - 0.5 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | Championship | 2026/27 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 7–11 | LDDWL |
| Southampton | Championship | 2026/27 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 18–8 | WWDDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-2-1 | 1.0 / 1.3 | 0 |
| Southampton | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-2-1 | 1.0 / 1.3 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 2 meetings: Wrexham 0 wins, 0 draws, Southampton 2 wins — 4.5 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr 26 | Wrexham | 1-5 | Southampton |
| 09 Aug 25 | Southampton | 2-1 | Wrexham |