Fixture · La Liga · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 15:15 BST
Atletico Madrid
v Real Madrid
The model's read
Atletico Madrid
36%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Real Madrid
37%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw | 62.6% |
| Double chance Real Madrid or draw | 64.4% |
| Double chance either team | 73.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 42.1% |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 43.5% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 22.8% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 23.7% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.7% · 1-2 8.5% · 2-1 8.3% · 0-1 6.8% · 1-0 6.6%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Players in form
- Álex Baena has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- G. Simeone has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- J. Oblak has made 13 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Kylian Mbappé has scored 7 goals in 6 league games this season.
- J. Bellingham has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- Vinícius Júnior has 1 goal and 3 assists in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Atletico Madrid
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep | W | 4-0 | Osasuna (H) | — |
| 13 Sep | W | 3-0 | Real Sociedad (A) | 2.0 - 0.3 |
| 09 Sep | L | 1-2 | Liverpool (A) | 0.9 - 1.6 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-3 | Athletic Club (A) | 1.0 - 1.4 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-1 | Sevilla (A) | 0.9 - 1.0 |
| 23 Aug | D | 2-2 | Villarreal (H) | 0.7 - 3.1 |
Recent form — Real Madrid
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep | W | 3-2 | Elche (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | W | 4-1 | Rayo Vallecano (H) | 2.6 - 1.2 |
| 08 Sep | W | 2-1 | Inter (H) | 2.9 - 1.8 |
| 04 Sep | L | 0-1 | Real Betis (A) | 3.5 - 0.9 |
| 30 Aug | W | 4-0 | Malaga (H) | 2.3 - 0.7 |
| 26 Aug | W | 4-1 | Real Sociedad (H) | 3.1 - 0.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Atletico Madrid
-0.10
xG diff/game · 1.09 for, 1.19 against
Real Madrid
+1.59
xG diff/game · 2.36 for, 0.77 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 2026/27 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 10–6 | WLWDW |
| Real Madrid | La Liga | 2026/27 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 17–6 | WWLWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Real Madrid | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Atletico Madrid 3 wins, 3 draws, Real Madrid 4 wins — 3.9 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 26 | Real Madrid | 3-2 | Atletico Madrid |
| 27 Sep 25 | Atletico Madrid | 5-2 | Real Madrid |