Atletico Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.35–0.30.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Real Madrid to win (42%); it finished with Atletico Madrid to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 32% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Atletico Madrid created the better chances — the xG read 2.4–0.3 and the shot count agreed (18–8, 9–3 on target). Atletico Madrid got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 3). On the balance of chances, the 2–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw | 1.79 | 52.4% | +2.0 pts |
| Double chance Real Madrid or draw | 1.30 | 72.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.2% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Atletico Madrid | 2.54 | 36.9% | +1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Madrid | 1.48 | 63.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 82.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 62.9% | -2.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.23 | 42.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.43 | 64.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 2.25 | 41.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 1.68 | 56.1% | -2.6 pts |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.52 · 1-2 8.35 · 2-2 10.62 · 2-1 11.31 · 0-1 11.32
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-20 08:02 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 26 | Real Madrid | 3-2 | Atletico Madrid |
| 27 Sep 25 | Atletico Madrid | 5-2 | Real Madrid |