Auxerre 2–1 Stade Brestois 29
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.96–0.34.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Auxerre to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 36% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Auxerre created the better chances — the xG read 1–0.3 and the shot count agreed (11–8, 4–2 on target). Auxerre's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1 xG, 4 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 2–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Auxerre or draw | 1.57 | 60.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw | 1.39 | 67.5% | +1.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Auxerre | 2.08 | 44.9% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stade Brestois 29 | 1.70 | 55.1% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 76.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 53.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.89 | 32.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 58.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Auxerre over 1.5 team goals | 2.44 | 38.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 over 1.5 team goals | 2.10 | 44.7% | +1.2 pts |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.42 · 1-2 8.82 · 0-1 8.98 · 2-1 9.92 · 1-0 9.99
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-20 08:04 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Auxerre | 3-0 | Stade Brestois 29 |
| 04 Jan 26 | Stade Brestois 29 | 2-0 | Auxerre |