Fixture · Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 14:30 BST
Bayer Leverkusen
v RB Leipzig
The model's read
Bayer Leverkusen
48%
match result
Draw
23%
match result
RB Leipzig
29%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw | 70.9% |
| Double chance RB Leipzig or draw | 52.5% |
| Double chance either team | 76.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.3% |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% |
| Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 team goals | 59.4% |
| RB Leipzig over 1.5 team goals | 45.7% |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 21.3% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 13.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 9.8% · 2-1 8.9% · 2-2 6.9% · 1-2 6.9% · 3-1 6.0%
Model readiness. Bayer Leverkusen has played 3 league games this season, RB Leipzig 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bayer Leverkusen
- Both teams scored in 5 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 6 home league games.
- Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 2.8 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
RB Leipzig
- 5 of RB Leipzig's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of RB Leipzig's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- P. Schick has scored 3 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Christian Kofane has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Miguel Gutiérrez has 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
- R. Baku has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- A. Nusa has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- T. Gomis has 1 goal and 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | FC Augsburg (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 4-0 | Union Berlin (H) | 3.1 - 0.4 |
| 29 Aug | L | 2-3 | SV Elversberg (A) | 1.9 - 1.3 |
| 16 May | D | 1-1 | Hamburger SV (H) | 3.3 - 1.8 |
| 09 May | L | 1-3 | VfB Stuttgart (A) | 0.5 - 3.0 |
| 02 May | W | 4-1 | RB Leipzig (H) | 4.4 - 1.2 |
Recent form — RB Leipzig
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | W | 5-0 | Hamburger SV (H) | — |
| 10 Sep | L | 1-4 | Como (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-3 | Werder Bremen (A) | 1.5 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) | 4.0 - 1.1 |
| 16 May | L | 1-4 | SC Freiburg (A) | 1.2 - 1.4 |
| 09 May | W | 2-1 | FC St. Pauli (H) | 1.4 - 0.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Bayer Leverkusen
+1.67
xG diff/game · 2.50 for, 0.83 against
RB Leipzig
+1.71
xG diff/game · 2.73 for, 1.02 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.333 | 8–5 | DWL |
| RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 9–3 | WLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 4.0 / 0.0 | 1 |
| RB Leipzig | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 1.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 6 wins, 1 draws, RB Leipzig 3 wins — 3.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 26 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4-1 | RB Leipzig |
| 20 Dec 25 | RB Leipzig | 1-3 | Bayer Leverkusen |