Fixture · Premier League · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 14:00 BST
Bournemouth
v Liverpool
The model's read
Bournemouth
44%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Liverpool
30%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Bournemouth or draw | 70.4% |
| Double chance Liverpool or draw | 55.8% |
| Double chance either team | 73.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% |
| Bournemouth over 1.5 team goals | 49.4% |
| Liverpool over 1.5 team goals | 38.2% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 26.6% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 19.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.2% · 2-1 9.2% · 1-2 7.4% · 1-0 7.3% · 2-0 7.0%
Model readiness. Bournemouth has played 4 league games this season, Liverpool 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Bournemouth: another match 3d before (2026-09-17).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bournemouth
- Bournemouth are winless in their last 6 league games (D5 L1).
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W0 D3).
- Both teams have scored in each of Bournemouth's last 6 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Bournemouth's last 6 home league games.
Liverpool
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W1 D4).
- 5 of Liverpool's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Liverpool's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- M. Tavernier has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Evanilson has 0 goals and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- Đ. Petrović has made 9 saves in 4 league games this season.
- A. Isak has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- C. Gakpo has 1 goal and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- Alisson Becker has made 12 saves in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Bournemouth
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Brentford (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 2-2 | Newcastle (A) | 1.4 - 0.7 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Everton (H) | 2.2 - 1.8 |
| 23 Aug | L | 1-2 | Manchester City (A) | 0.6 - 2.4 |
| 24 May | D | 1-1 | Nottingham Forest (A) | 0.9 - 1.7 |
| 19 May | D | 1-1 | Manchester City (H) | 2.2 - 1.5 |
Recent form — Liverpool
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Fulham (H) | — |
| 09 Sep | W | 2-1 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.6 - 0.9 |
| 04 Sep | W | 2-0 | Ipswich (A) | 0.7 - 0.8 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Nottingham Forest (H) | 1.8 - 2.3 |
| 23 Aug | D | 2-2 | Newcastle (A) | 2.2 - 1.4 |
| 24 May | D | 1-1 | Brentford (H) | 3.0 - 1.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Bournemouth
-0.25
xG diff/game · 1.39 for, 1.64 against
Liverpool
+0.07
xG diff/game · 1.56 for, 1.49 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | Premier League | 2026/27 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0.75 | 6–7 | DDDL |
| Liverpool | Premier League | 2026/27 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 6–4 | DWDD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 1.5 / 1.5 | 0 |
| Liverpool | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Bournemouth 2 wins, 0 draws, Liverpool 8 wins — 4.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 26 | Bournemouth | 3-2 | Liverpool |
| 15 Aug 25 | Liverpool | 4-2 | Bournemouth |