Fixture · Serie A · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 11:30 BST
Fiorentina
v Napoli
The model's read
Fiorentina
35%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Napoli
36%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Fiorentina or draw | 63.9% |
| Double chance Napoli or draw | 65.3% |
| Double chance either team | 70.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% |
| Fiorentina over 1.5 team goals | 35.8% |
| Napoli over 1.5 team goals | 36.9% |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 27.6% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 28.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.0% · 0-0 9.1% · 0-1 8.8% · 1-0 8.6% · 1-2 8.2%
Model readiness. Fiorentina has played 4 league games this season, Napoli 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Fiorentina
- Fiorentina have scored just 3 goals across their last 6 home league games.
Napoli
- Napoli have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Franco Mastantuono has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Mateo Pellegrino has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- David De Gea has made 11 saves in 4 league games this season.
- Rasmus Højlund has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- A. Meret has made 11 saves in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Fiorentina
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | W | 4-2 | Venezia (A) | 3.4 - 0.7 |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-2 | Torino (H) | 1.7 - 0.6 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-3 | Frosinone (H) | 2.1 - 1.1 |
| 24 Aug | L | 0-4 | AS Roma (A) | 0.2 - 2.7 |
| 22 May | D | 1-1 | Atalanta (H) | 0.8 - 1.4 |
| 17 May | W | 2-0 | Juventus (A) | 0.5 - 2.0 |
Recent form — Napoli
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | W | 1-0 | Bologna (H) | 1.8 - 0.2 |
| 09 Sep | L | 0-1 | Arsenal (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | L | 2-3 | Inter (A) | 2.4 - 3.9 |
| 30 Aug | L | 1-2 | Como (H) | 1.4 - 1.0 |
| 22 Aug | W | 2-0 | Genoa (A) | 0.1 - 0.6 |
| 24 May | W | 1-0 | Udinese (H) | 1.8 - 0.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Fiorentina
+0.57
xG diff/game · 1.85 for, 1.28 against
Napoli
-0.01
xG diff/game · 1.42 for, 1.43 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | Serie A | 2026/27 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0.75 | 5–11 | WLLL |
| Napoli | Serie A | 2026/27 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 6–5 | WLLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 0-0-2 | 0.5 / 2.5 | 0 |
| Napoli | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 2.0 / 1.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Fiorentina 2 wins, 2 draws, Napoli 6 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Napoli | 2-1 | Fiorentina |
| 13 Sep 25 | Fiorentina | 1-3 | Napoli |