Fulham 1–1 Manchester United
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.62–1.60.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Manchester United to win (38%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.6–1.6, shots 12–29 with 6–6 on target. Manchester United got into the box far more often (17 shots inside it to 11). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Fulham or draw | 1.80 | 52.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance Manchester United or draw | 1.30 | 72.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.2% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Fulham | 2.52 | 37.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Manchester United | 1.49 | 62.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 61.2% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.34 | 40.6% | +0.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.47 | 63.2% | +0.9 pts |
| Fulham over 1.5 team goals | 2.33 | 40.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Manchester United over 1.5 team goals | 1.71 | 55.2% | +0.9 pts |
| Fulham clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.35 · 1-2 8.39 · 0-1 10.32 · 2-2 11.12 · 2-1 11.37
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-20 08:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb 26 | Manchester United | 3-2 | Fulham |
| 24 Aug 25 | Fulham | 1-1 | Manchester United |