Fixture · Premier League · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 14:00 BST
Leeds
v Crystal Palace
The model's read
Leeds
44%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Crystal Palace
29%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 70.6% |
| Double chance Crystal Palace or draw | 55.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 49.1% |
| Crystal Palace over 1.5 team goals | 37.7% |
| Leeds clean sheet | 27.0% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 19.2% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.3% · 2-1 9.2% · 1-0 7.4% · 1-2 7.3% · 2-0 7.1%
Model readiness. Leeds has played 4 league games this season, Crystal Palace 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Crystal Palace: another match 3d before (2026-09-17).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Leeds
- Leeds are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W2 D2).
- Leeds have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace have conceded in each of their last 10 league games.
- 5 of Crystal Palace's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- J. Bogle has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- D. Calvert-Lewin has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- J. Trafford has made 15 saves in 4 league games this season.
- T. Mitchell has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- D. Kamada has 0 goals and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- D. Henderson has made 12 saves in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Leeds
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep | W | 4-1 | Newcastle (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Brighton (A) | 2.5 - 2.2 |
| 30 Aug | D | 1-1 | Brentford (H) | 1.4 - 1.6 |
| 22 Aug | W | 1-0 | Nottingham Forest (A) | 0.3 - 0.3 |
| 24 May | L | 0-3 | West Ham (A) | 1.6 - 2.6 |
| 17 May | W | 1-0 | Brighton (H) | 0.4 - 3.1 |
Recent form — Crystal Palace
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 2-3 | Ipswich (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | Fulham (A) | 2.0 - 3.1 |
| 28 Aug | L | 1-4 | Manchester City (H) | 0.6 - 1.4 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-2 | Everton (A) | 1.6 - 1.0 |
| 24 May | L | 1-2 | Arsenal (H) | 1.0 - 2.5 |
| 17 May | D | 2-2 | Brentford (A) | 1.7 - 1.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Leeds
+0.04
xG diff/game · 1.40 for, 1.36 against
Crystal Palace
-0.47
xG diff/game · 1.40 for, 1.87 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | Premier League | 2026/27 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 7–3 | WDDW |
| Crystal Palace | Premier League | 2026/27 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0.75 | 6–11 | LWLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Leeds 3 wins, 4 draws, Crystal Palace 3 wins — 2.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Crystal Palace | 0-0 | Leeds |
| 20 Dec 25 | Leeds | 4-1 | Crystal Palace |