Leeds 0–0 Crystal Palace
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.31–1.06.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Leeds to win (46%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.3–1.1, shots 13–12 with 2–4 on target. Leeds got into the box far more often (9 shots inside it to 4). Leeds's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.3 xG despite 2 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 1.19 | 79.5% | +1.3 pts |
| Double chance Crystal Palace or draw | 2.14 | 44.1% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.4% | +1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Leeds | 1.28 | 72.9% | +2.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Crystal Palace | 3.44 | 27.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 78.2% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 56.3% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.68 | 35.0% | +1.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 56.1% | +0.5 pts |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 1.66 | 56.5% | +2.6 pts |
| Crystal Palace over 1.5 team goals | 3.17 | 29.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Leeds clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -1.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.21 · 2-1 7.73 · 1-0 7.95 · 2-0 8.93 · 3-1 12.69
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-20 08:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Crystal Palace | 0-0 | Leeds |
| 20 Dec 25 | Leeds | 4-1 | Crystal Palace |