Fixture · Premier League · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 14:00 BST
Manchester City
v Sunderland
The model's read
Manchester City
55%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
Sunderland
19%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Manchester City or draw | 80.6% |
| Double chance Sunderland or draw | 44.6% |
| Double chance either team | 74.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% |
| Manchester City over 1.5 team goals | 53.9% |
| Sunderland over 1.5 team goals | 26.1% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 37.2% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 16.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.0% · 2-0 10.0% · 1-0 9.9% · 2-1 9.9% · 0-0 7.2%
Model readiness. Manchester City has played 5 league games this season, Sunderland 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Manchester City
- Manchester City have won their last 4 league games.
- Manchester City have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- 5 of Manchester City's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Manchester City have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Sunderland
- Both teams scored in 6 of Sunderland's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- E. Haaland has scored 4 goals in 4 league games this season.
- R. Cherki has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- G. Donnarumma has made 10 saves in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Manchester City
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | W | 1-0 | Manchester United (A) | — |
| 08 Sep | W | 2-0 | FC Porto (A) | 2.3 - 0.3 |
| 05 Sep | W | 1-0 | Coventry (H) | 2.1 - 1.4 |
| 28 Aug | W | 4-1 | Crystal Palace (A) | 1.4 - 0.6 |
| 23 Aug | W | 2-1 | Bournemouth (H) | 2.4 - 0.6 |
| 24 May | L | 1-2 | Aston Villa (H) | 1.3 - 1.8 |
Recent form — Sunderland
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 0-2 | Arsenal (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Brentford (A) | 1.7 - 1.2 |
| 30 Aug | W | 1-0 | Fulham (H) | 1.8 - 0.9 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-2 | Ipswich (A) | 0.7 - 1.6 |
| 24 May | W | 2-1 | Chelsea (H) | 1.8 - 0.9 |
| 17 May | W | 3-1 | Everton (A) | 0.8 - 1.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Manchester City
+1.12
xG diff/game · 1.98 for, 0.86 against
Sunderland
+0.13
xG diff/game · 1.39 for, 1.26 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | Premier League | 2026/27 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 8–2 | WWWW |
| Sunderland | Premier League | 2026/27 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 3–5 | LDWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 1.5 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Sunderland | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 1.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Manchester City 8 wins, 2 draws, Sunderland 0 wins — 3.3 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan 26 | Sunderland | 0-0 | Manchester City |
| 06 Dec 25 | Manchester City | 3-0 | Sunderland |