Manchester City 5–3 Sunderland
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 5–3; by chance quality the match ran 2.82–3.57.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Manchester City to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 53% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Sunderland created the better chances — the xG read 2.8–3.6 and the shot count agreed (16–17, 6–9 on target). Manchester City's finishing ran hot — 5 from 2.8 xG, 6 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 5–3 flatters Manchester City — on chances created, Sunderland shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Manchester City or draw | 1.07 | 88.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Double chance Sunderland or draw | 3.25 | 29.1% | +2.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.15 | 82.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Manchester City | 1.10 | 85.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sunderland | 6.42 | 14.6% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.0% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60.5% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.41 | 39.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.87 | 49.9% | +2.1 pts |
| Manchester City over 1.5 team goals | 1.39 | 67.3% | -1.2 pts |
| Sunderland over 1.5 team goals | 4.62 | 20.2% | +1.5 pts |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 2.00 | 46.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.6% | +1.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 6.71 · 1-0 7.70 · 2-1 8.43 · 3-0 8.69 · 1-1 9.83
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-20 08:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan 26 | Sunderland | 0-0 | Manchester City |
| 06 Dec 25 | Manchester City | 3-0 | Sunderland |