Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 19:45 BST
Marseille
v Paris Saint Germain
The model's read
Marseille
34%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Paris Saint Germain
39%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Marseille or draw | 60.6% |
| Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw | 66.0% |
| Double chance either team | 73.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.0% |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% |
| Marseille over 1.5 team goals | 42.0% |
| Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 team goals | 46.1% |
| Marseille clean sheet | 21.1% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 23.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.3% · 1-2 8.7% · 2-1 8.0% · 0-1 6.7% · 2-2 6.3%
Model readiness. Marseille has played 4 league games this season, Paris Saint Germain 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Marseille: another match 3d before (2026-09-17).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Marseille
- Marseille have lost their last 3 league games.
- 5 of Marseille's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Marseille's last 6 home league games.
- Marseille have averaged 2.3 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Players in form
- A. Gouiri has scored 4 goals in 4 league games this season.
- J. de Lange has made 15 saves in 4 league games this season.
- Ferran Torres has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Marquinhos has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- M. Safonov has made 8 saves in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Marseille
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | L | 0-1 | Rennes (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | L | 2-3 | Paris FC (H) | — |
| 30 Aug | L | 0-2 | Monaco (A) | 1.2 - 1.5 |
| 21 Aug | W | 4-0 | Strasbourg (H) | 1.8 - 0.2 |
| 17 May | W | 3-1 | Rennes (H) | 2.9 - 2.5 |
| 10 May | W | 1-0 | Le Havre (A) | 1.2 - 1.1 |
Recent form — Paris Saint Germain
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | W | 1-0 | Stade Brestois 29 (A) | — |
| 09 Sep | W | 6-1 | Slovan Bratislava (H) | — |
| 04 Sep | L | 1-2 | Monaco (H) | 2.3 - 0.5 |
| 28 Aug | D | 2-2 | Lille (A) | 1.2 - 1.1 |
| 23 Aug | D | 2-2 | Rennes (A) | 1.6 - 0.7 |
| 17 May | L | 1-2 | Paris FC (A) | 0.6 - 2.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Marseille
+0.66
xG diff/game · 1.50 for, 0.84 against
Paris Saint Germain
+0.92
xG diff/game · 1.70 for, 0.78 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0.75 | 6–6 | LLLW |
| Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1.25 | 6–6 | WLDD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 3.0 / 1.5 | 1 |
| Paris Saint Germain | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Marseille 2 wins, 1 draws, Paris Saint Germain 7 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 26 | Paris Saint Germain | 5-0 | Marseille |
| 22 Sep 25 | Marseille | 1-0 | Paris Saint Germain |