Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint Germain
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 40% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Paris Saint Germain carried the greater threat — shots 12–31, 4–10 on target, 7–22 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Marseille or draw | 2.99 | 31.6% | -1.9 pts |
| Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw | 1.10 | 86.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.15 | 82.3% | +0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Marseille | 5.38 | 17.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris Saint Germain | 1.13 | 82.6% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 85.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 68.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.96 | 48.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.54 | 60.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Marseille over 1.5 team goals | 3.23 | 29.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 team goals | 1.30 | 71.9% | +1.5 pts |
| Marseille clean sheet | 11.00 | 8.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-2 8.20 · 0-2 9.01 · 1-3 9.69 · 1-1 10.02 · 0-1 10.64
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 08:08 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 26 | Paris Saint Germain | 5-0 | Marseille |
| 22 Sep 25 | Marseille | 1-0 | Paris Saint Germain |