Fixture · Serie B · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 18:30 BST
Modena
v Empoli
The model's read
Modena
45%
match result
Draw
30%
match result
Empoli
26%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Modena or draw | 74.5% |
| Double chance Empoli or draw | 55.2% |
| Double chance either team | 70.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% |
| Modena over 1.5 team goals | 40.3% |
| Empoli over 1.5 team goals | 26.0% |
| Modena clean sheet | 37.3% |
| Empoli clean sheet | 25.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.0% · 1-0 11.6% · 0-0 10.6% · 2-0 8.9% · 2-1 8.8%
Model readiness. Modena has played 4 league games this season, Empoli 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Players in form
- Giuseppe Ambrosino has 2 assists in 2 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Modena
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Sudtirol (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | L | 0-1 | Avellino (H) | 2.0 - 0.4 |
| 28 Aug | W | 3-0 | Cremonese (A) | 0.6 - 0.4 |
| 22 Aug | W | 2-1 | Benevento (A) | 0.5 - 0.5 |
| 12 May | L | 0-1 | Juve Stabia (H) | 1.0 - 0.3 |
| 08 May | L | 0-1 | Avellino (A) | 0.1 - 1.0 |
Recent form — Empoli
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | L | 0-1 | Arezzo (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 1-0 | Carrarese (A) | 0.7 - 0.8 |
| 30 Aug | L | 1-3 | Mantova (A) | 0.4 - 1.1 |
| 22 Aug | W | 1-0 | Cremonese (H) | 1.0 - 0.3 |
| 08 May | D | 2-2 | Monza (A) | 1.0 - 1.2 |
| 01 May | W | 1-0 | Avellino (H) | 2.4 - 0.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Modena
+0.62
xG diff/game · 1.04 for, 0.42 against
Empoli
-0.04
xG diff/game · 0.70 for, 0.74 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena | Serie B | 2026/27 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 6–3 | DLWW |
| Empoli | Serie B | 2026/27 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 3–4 | LWLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena | home | Serie B | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| Empoli | away | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.0 / 1.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 2 meetings: Modena 1 wins, 1 draws, Empoli 0 wins — 1.5 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Empoli | 0-0 | Modena |
| 24 Oct 25 | Modena | 2-1 | Empoli |