Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 16:15 BST
Nice
v Lille
The model's read
Nice
33%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Lille
39%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Nice or draw | 60.6% |
| Double chance Lille or draw | 67.5% |
| Double chance either team | 71.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% |
| Nice over 1.5 team goals | 36.6% |
| Lille over 1.5 team goals | 41.9% |
| Nice clean sheet | 23.9% |
| Lille clean sheet | 27.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.4% · 1-2 8.7% · 0-1 8.3% · 0-0 7.9% · 2-1 7.8%
Model readiness. Nice has played 4 league games this season, Lille 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Nice
- Nice are winless in their last 4 league games (D2 L2).
- Only 1 of Nice's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Lille
- Lille are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W3 D1).
- Lille have won 6 of their last 6 away league games.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Lille's last 6 away league games.
- Lille have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Y. Diouf has made 9 saves in 4 league games this season.
- Tiago Santos has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- B. Özer has made 14 saves in 4 league games this season.
- O. Giroud has 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Nice
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 0-1 | Auxerre (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Le Mans (H) | 1.1 - 1.3 |
| 30 Aug | L | 0-3 | Paris FC (A) | 0.6 - 2.7 |
| 22 Aug | D | 0-0 | Lorient (H) | 0.9 - 0.9 |
| 29 May | W | 4-1 | Saint Etienne (H) | — |
| 26 May | D | 0-0 | Saint Etienne (A) | — |
Recent form — Lille
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | W | 2-0 | Estac Troyes (H) | — |
| 08 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Betis (H) | 0.8 - 1.8 |
| 03 Sep | W | 1-0 | Toulouse (A) | 1.2 - 3.5 |
| 28 Aug | D | 2-2 | Paris Saint Germain (H) | 1.1 - 1.2 |
| 23 Aug | W | 2-0 | Angers (A) | 1.0 - 1.3 |
| 17 May | L | 0-2 | Auxerre (H) | 1.7 - 0.5 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Nice
-0.76
xG diff/game · 0.87 for, 1.63 against
Lille
-0.89
xG diff/game · 1.10 for, 2.00 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1–5 | LDLD |
| Lille | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 7–2 | WWDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Lille | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Nice 4 wins, 4 draws, Lille 2 wins — 2.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 26 | Lille | 0-0 | Nice |
| 29 Oct 25 | Nice | 2-0 | Lille |