Norwich 3–4 Bolton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–4; by chance quality the match ran 0.69–1.10.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Norwich to win (56%); it finished with Bolton to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 20% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Bolton created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.1, with the shot count roughly even (10–9, 4–5 on target). Norwich's finishing ran hot — 3 from 0.7 xG, 4 of 10 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 3–4 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Norwich or draw | 1.11 | 84.5% | +2.3 pts |
| Double chance Bolton or draw | 2.70 | 34.6% | -4.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.16 | 80.9% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Norwich | 1.16 | 80.6% | +3.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bolton | 4.81 | 19.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 83.0% | +1.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 64.3% | +3.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.16 | 43.6% | +3.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 57.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Norwich over 1.5 team goals | 1.39 | 66.9% | +4.0 pts |
| Bolton over 1.5 team goals | 3.30 | 28.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Norwich clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Bolton clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.6% | -3.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 7.91 · 2-0 8.29 · 1-0 9.19 · 1-1 9.19 · 3-1 10.17
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-20 08:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).