FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · Serie A · Sun 20 Sep 2026, 14:00 BST

Parma
v Genoa

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The model's read

Parma
31%
match result
Draw
31%
match result
Genoa
38%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Parma or draw62.0%
Double chance Genoa or draw69.1%
Double chance either team68.9%
Over 1.5 goals67.8%
Over 2.5 goals39.9%
Over 3.5 goals19.7%
Both teams to score47.4%
Parma over 1.5 team goals29.0%
Genoa over 1.5 team goals34.2%
Parma clean sheet29.8%
Genoa clean sheet34.3%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.6% · 0-0 11.5% · 0-1 11.1% · 1-0 9.6% · 1-2 8.0%

Model readiness. Parma has played 4 league games this season, Genoa 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.

Parma

  • Parma are winless in their last 4 league games (D1 L3).
  • Only 1 of Parma's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.

Genoa

  • Genoa are winless in their last 9 league games (D3 L6).
  • Only 1 of Genoa's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in only 1 of Genoa's last 6 away league games.
  • Genoa have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.

Players in form

  • Edoardo Corvi has made 16 saves in 4 league games this season.
  • Justin Bijlow has made 13 saves in 4 league games this season.

This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.

Recent form — Parma

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
14 SepL1-2Como (A)1.2 - 3.2
06 SepD1-1Monza (H)0.7 - 1.7
29 AugL0-2Juventus (A)0.2 - 1.7
22 AugL0-1Cagliari (H)0.8 - 0.7
24 MayW1-0Sassuolo (H)1.1 - 0.9
17 MayL0-1Como (A)0.4 - 2.8

Recent form — Genoa

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
12 SepD1-1Frosinone (H)1.9 - 1.9
04 SepL1-4Como (H)0.8 - 1.8
30 AugL0-1Lazio (A)0.6 - 1.6
22 AugL0-2Napoli (H)0.6 - 0.1
24 MayL0-1Lecce (A)0.7 - 1.4
17 MayL1-2AC Milan (H)1.3 - 1.8

Chance quality, most recent season

Parma
-1.10
xG diff/game · 0.73 for, 1.84 against
Genoa
-0.37
xG diff/game · 0.95 for, 1.32 against

Where they stand

TeamLeagueSeason PosP PtsPPGGoals Form
ParmaSerie A2026/2717410.252–6LDLL
GenoaSerie A2026/2719410.252–8DLLL

The table as it stands this season.

Home and away

TeamVenueLeagueSeason W-D-L Goals for / against per gameClean sheets
ParmahomeSerie A2026/270-1-10.5 / 1.00
GenoaawaySerie A2026/270-0-10.0 / 1.00

This season’s home and away splits.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings: Parma 4 wins, 3 draws, Genoa 3 wins — 2.7 goals a game on average.

DateHomeScoreAway
18 Jan 26Parma0-0Genoa
19 Oct 25Genoa0-0Parma