SC Paderborn 07 3–1 1899 Hoffenheim
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.68–1.50.
The brain read
1899 Hoffenheim created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.5 and the shot count agreed (13–23, 5–2 on target). 1899 Hoffenheim got into the box far more often (16 shots inside it to 7) and 1899 Hoffenheim held 66% of the ball. SC Paderborn 07's finishing ran hot — 3 from 0.7 xG, 5 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 3–1 flatters SC Paderborn 07 — on chances created, 1899 Hoffenheim shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SC Paderborn 07 or draw | 2.18 | 43.2% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw | 1.20 | 78.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.20 | 78.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — SC Paderborn 07 | 3.28 | 28.4% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.30 | 71.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 84.4% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 66.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 45.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.43 | 64.7% | +0.0 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 over 1.5 team goals | 2.50 | 37.6% | -0.3 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.5 team goals | 1.47 | 63.7% | -0.8 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet | 8.00 | 11.9% | +0.0 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-2 7.99 · 1-1 8.64 · 0-2 10.65 · 0-1 10.81 · 1-3 11.23
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-20 08:03 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).