Valencia 2–3 Real Sociedad
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.55–2.65.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Valencia to win (50%); it finished with Real Sociedad to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 22% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Real Sociedad created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–2.6, with the shot count roughly even (22–21, 5–6 on target). On the balance of chances, the 2–3 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Valencia or draw | 1.50 | 62.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance Real Sociedad or draw | 1.44 | 65.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Valencia | 1.93 | 48.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Sociedad | 1.81 | 51.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 72.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 49.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 29.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.69 | 55.2% | +0.6 pts |
| Valencia over 1.5 team goals | 2.47 | 38.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 team goals | 2.36 | 39.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Valencia clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.08 · 0-1 8.36 · 1-0 8.78 · 1-2 9.25 · 2-1 9.50
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-20 08:02 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 26 | Real Sociedad | 3-4 | Valencia |
| 16 Aug 25 | Valencia | 1-1 | Real Sociedad |