AD Ceuta FC 3–1 Real Sociedad II
What the chances were worth
The brain read
AD Ceuta FC carried the greater threat — shots 25–5, 8–2 on target, 16–1 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. AD Ceuta FC held 70% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance AD Ceuta FC or draw | 1.52 | 61.8% | -7.4 pts |
| Double chance Real Sociedad II or draw | 1.44 | 65.4% | +7.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.8% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — AD Ceuta FC | 1.99 | 46.9% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Sociedad II | 1.75 | 53.1% | +11.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 74.7% | -1.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 51.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.08 | 30.3% | -2.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.63 | 56.9% | -1.2 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC over 1.5 team goals | 2.38 | 39.2% | -7.1 pts |
| Real Sociedad II over 1.5 team goals | 2.20 | 42.4% | +4.3 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -4.0 pts |
| Real Sociedad II clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +4.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.15 · 0-1 8.30 · 1-2 8.51 · 1-0 8.99 · 2-1 9.43
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-26 11:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr 26 | AD Ceuta FC | 0-0 | Real Sociedad II |
| 21 Dec 25 | Real Sociedad II | 1-3 | AD Ceuta FC |