Fixture · Bundesliga · Fri 09 Oct 2026, 19:30 BST
Borussia Dortmund
v Werder Bremen
The model's read
Borussia Dortmund
57%
match result
Draw
24%
match result
Werder Bremen
19%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw | 81.1% |
| Double chance Werder Bremen or draw | 42.7% |
| Double chance either team | 76.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% |
| Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 team goals | 58.1% |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 team goals | 28.3% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 35.0% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 14.2% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.2% · 2-1 9.9% · 2-0 9.5% · 1-0 8.7% · 3-1 6.5%
Model readiness. Borussia Dortmund has played 5 league games this season, Werder Bremen 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund have won their last 6 league games.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- Borussia Dortmund have averaged 2.5 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
- Werder Bremen have conceded in each of their last 11 league games.
- Both teams have scored in each of Werder Bremen's last 4 league games.
Players in form
- S. Guirassy has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- F. Nmecha has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Fábio Silva has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- N. Füllkrug has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- M. Grüll has 2 goals and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- K. Hein has made 11 saves in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Borussia Dortmund
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 1-0 | VfB Stuttgart (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | W | 3-0 | SC Paderborn 07 (H) | 1.8 - 0.5 |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-2 | Villarreal (H) | 2.8 - 1.3 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim (A) | 2.0 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-0 | Hamburger SV (H) | 1.5 - 0.9 |
| 16 May | W | 2-0 | Werder Bremen (A) | 2.7 - 0.5 |
Recent form — Werder Bremen
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 3-2 | FC Augsburg (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | 1. FC Köln (A) | 1.1 - 1.6 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-1 | RB Leipzig (H) | 0.9 - 1.5 |
| 30 Aug | L | 1-4 | SC Freiburg (A) | 0.5 - 1.9 |
| 16 May | L | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund (H) | 0.5 - 2.7 |
| 09 May | L | 0-1 | 1899 Hoffenheim (A) | 1.1 - 1.5 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Borussia Dortmund
+0.91
xG diff/game · 1.77 for, 0.86 against
Werder Bremen
-0.85
xG diff/game · 0.85 for, 1.70 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 8–2 | WWW |
| Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1.333 | 5–6 | DWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 2.5 / 0.0 | 2 |
| Werder Bremen | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 1.0 / 2.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 7 wins, 2 draws, Werder Bremen 1 wins — 2.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 26 | Werder Bremen | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 13 Jan 26 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 | Werder Bremen |