Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 BST
1899 Hoffenheim
v Hamburger SV
The model's read
1899 Hoffenheim
54%
match result
Draw
24%
match result
Hamburger SV
23%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw | 77.5% |
| Double chance Hamburger SV or draw | 46.4% |
| Double chance either team | 76.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.5 team goals | 58.3% |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 team goals | 34.4% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet | 29.6% |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 14.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.9% · 2-1 9.7% · 2-0 8.0% · 1-0 7.2% · 3-1 6.4%
Model readiness. 1899 Hoffenheim has played 5 league games this season, Hamburger SV 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
1899 Hoffenheim
- 5 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 6 home league games.
Hamburger SV
- Hamburger SV have conceded in each of their last 18 league games.
Players in form
- A. Daghim has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- A. Hložek has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- O. Baumann has made 11 saves in 4 league games this season.
- Daniel Heuer Fernandes has made 13 saves in 4 league games this season.
- A. Grønbæk has 2 assists in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — 1899 Hoffenheim
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 1-3 | SC Paderborn 07 (A) | — |
| 17 Sep | L | 0-2 | OFI (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | VfB Stuttgart (H) | 2.8 - 2.2 |
| 05 Sep | L | 2-3 | Borussia Dortmund (H) | 1.2 - 2.0 |
| 29 Aug | L | 2-3 | 1. FC Köln (A) | 1.9 - 1.9 |
| 16 May | L | 0-4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) | 1.6 - 1.2 |
Recent form — Hamburger SV
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | 1. FC Köln (H) | — |
| 13 Sep | L | 0-5 | RB Leipzig (A) | 1.1 - 2.4 |
| 06 Sep | L | 0-5 | FSV Mainz 05 (H) | 0.2 - 2.8 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund (A) | 0.9 - 1.5 |
| 16 May | D | 1-1 | Bayer Leverkusen (A) | 1.8 - 3.3 |
| 10 May | W | 3-2 | SC Freiburg (H) | 2.0 - 0.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
1899 Hoffenheim
-0.11
xG diff/game · 1.94 for, 2.04 against
Hamburger SV
-1.51
xG diff/game · 0.73 for, 2.24 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 6–7 | WLL |
| Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0–12 | LLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Hamburger SV | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: 1899 Hoffenheim 5 wins, 2 draws, Hamburger SV 3 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | Hamburger SV | 1-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 13 Dec 25 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4-1 | Hamburger SV |