Fixture · Premier League · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST
Arsenal
v Leeds
The model's read
Arsenal
55%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Leeds
19%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Arsenal or draw | 80.6% |
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 45.2% |
| Double chance either team | 74.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% |
| Arsenal over 1.5 team goals | 52.0% |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 24.7% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 38.6% |
| Leeds clean sheet | 17.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.3% · 1-0 10.6% · 2-0 10.3% · 2-1 9.8% · 0-0 7.9%
Model readiness. Arsenal has played 6 league games this season, Leeds 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Arsenal: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Arsenal
- Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- Arsenal have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home league games.
Leeds
- Leeds are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W2 D3).
Players in form
- B. Saka has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- M. Ødegaard has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- K. Havertz has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- J. Trafford has made 20 saves in 5 league games this season.
- J. Bogle has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- D. Calvert-Lewin has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Arsenal
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 0-3 | Brighton (A) | 1.6 - 1.3 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-0 | Sunderland (A) | 1.9 - 1.8 |
| 09 Sep | W | 1-0 | Napoli (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | W | 2-1 | Chelsea (H) | 2.0 - 0.4 |
| 31 Aug | W | 1-0 | Aston Villa (A) | 1.1 - 0.3 |
| 21 Aug | W | 3-0 | Coventry (H) | 1.8 - 0.2 |
Recent form — Leeds
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | D | 0-0 | Crystal Palace (H) | — |
| 14 Sep | W | 4-1 | Newcastle (H) | 2.1 - 0.9 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Brighton (A) | 2.5 - 2.2 |
| 30 Aug | D | 1-1 | Brentford (H) | 1.4 - 1.6 |
| 22 Aug | W | 1-0 | Nottingham Forest (A) | 0.3 - 0.3 |
| 24 May | L | 0-3 | West Ham (A) | 1.6 - 2.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Arsenal
+0.87
xG diff/game · 1.68 for, 0.80 against
Leeds
+0.33
xG diff/game · 1.57 for, 1.24 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 8–1 | WWWW |
| Leeds | Premier League | 2026/27 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 7–3 | WDDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 2.5 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Leeds | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 1.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal 9 wins, 1 draws, Leeds 0 wins — 3.2 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Leeds | 0-4 | Arsenal |
| 23 Aug 25 | Arsenal | 5-0 | Leeds |