Fixture · Premier League · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST
Aston Villa
v Brentford
The model's read
Aston Villa
40%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Brentford
33%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Aston Villa or draw | 66.5% |
| Double chance Brentford or draw | 60.3% |
| Double chance either team | 73.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals | 45.6% |
| Brentford over 1.5 team goals | 40.9% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 24.6% |
| Brentford clean sheet | 21.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.5% · 2-1 8.8% · 1-2 8.0% · 1-0 7.0% · 0-0 6.4%
Model readiness. Aston Villa has played 6 league games this season, Brentford 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Aston Villa
- Aston Villa have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Brentford
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last 7 league games (W2 D5).
- Brentford have not won any of their last 6 away league games (D4 L2).
Players in form
- Z. Suzuki has made 15 saves in 5 league games this season.
- J. McGinn has 2 assists in 5 league games this season.
- K. Schade has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- C. Kelleher has made 17 saves in 5 league games this season.
- V. Janelt has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Aston Villa
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 3-2 | Tottenham (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Nottingham Forest (H) | 0.8 - 2.3 |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-2 | Club Brugge KV (A) | 3.2 - 1.5 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Hull City (A) | 1.9 - 0.6 |
| 31 Aug | L | 0-1 | Arsenal (H) | 0.3 - 1.1 |
| 23 Aug | L | 0-4 | Brighton (A) | 0.3 - 3.6 |
Recent form — Brentford
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | W | 3-0 | Chelsea (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Bournemouth (A) | 0.5 - 1.8 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Sunderland (H) | 1.2 - 1.7 |
| 30 Aug | D | 1-1 | Leeds (A) | 1.6 - 1.4 |
| 22 Aug | W | 3-0 | Tottenham (H) | 4.0 - 0.5 |
| 24 May | D | 1-1 | Liverpool (A) | 1.6 - 3.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Aston Villa
-1.04
xG diff/game · 0.84 for, 1.88 against
Brentford
+0.47
xG diff/game · 1.81 for, 1.34 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | Premier League | 2026/27 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 1–7 | LDLL |
| Brentford | Premier League | 2026/27 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 10–4 | WDDDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-0-2 | 0.5 / 1.5 | 0 |
| Brentford | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 1.5 / 1.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Aston Villa 4 wins, 4 draws, Brentford 2 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb 26 | Aston Villa | 0-1 | Brentford |
| 23 Aug 25 | Brentford | 1-0 | Aston Villa |