FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · Championship · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST

Bolton
v Stoke City

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The model's read

Bolton
40%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Stoke City
31%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Bolton or draw68.7%
Double chance Stoke City or draw60.2%
Double chance either team71.1%
Over 1.5 goals74.0%
Over 2.5 goals47.5%
Over 3.5 goals25.8%
Both teams to score53.4%
Bolton over 1.5 team goals40.0%
Stoke City over 1.5 team goals33.6%
Bolton clean sheet30.2%
Stoke City clean sheet25.2%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.8% · 1-0 9.2% · 0-0 8.9% · 2-1 8.7% · 0-1 7.9%

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Rotation risk — Bolton: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).

Rotation risk — Stoke City: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.

Stoke City

  • Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W4 D1).

Players in form

  • T. Gale has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
  • S. Dalby has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
  • G. Bazunu has made 15 saves in 6 league games this season.
  • V. Johansson has made 24 saves in 8 league games this season.
  • E. Galbraith has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
  • E. Bocat has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.

This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.

Recent form — Bolton

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
20 SepW4-3Norwich (A)—
12 SepW1-0Cardiff (H)0.5 - 1.8
08 SepL2-3West Ham (H)1.6 - 2.2
05 SepL0-4Millwall (A)0.9 - 2.6
01 SepL2-3Sheffield Utd (A)1.9 - 2.2
29 AugL0-1Lincoln (H)1.9 - 1.3

Recent form — Stoke City

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
19 SepW2-1Sheffield Utd (H)—
12 SepW2-1Watford (A)1.5 - 0.4
08 SepD1-1Cardiff (A)0.8 - 2.9
05 SepW4-0Charlton (H)2.1 - 0.6
01 SepW1-0Norwich (H)0.2 - 1.4
29 AugL1-4Wolves (A)0.8 - 2.7

Chance quality, most recent season

Bolton
-0.51
xG diff/game · 1.13 for, 1.64 against
Stoke City
-0.37
xG diff/game · 0.94 for, 1.31 against

Where they stand

TeamLeagueSeason PosP PtsPPGGoals Form
BoltonChampionship2026/2720771.07–12WLLLL
Stoke CityChampionship2026/27137101.42911–11WDWWL

The table as it stands this season.

Home and away

TeamVenueLeagueSeason W-D-L Goals for / against per gameClean sheets
BoltonhomeChampionship2026/272-0-21.3 / 1.31
Stoke CityawayChampionship2026/271-1-21.3 / 2.30

This season’s home and away splits.

Head to head

Last 7 meetings: Bolton 2 wins, 2 draws, Stoke City 3 wins — 2.43 goals a game on average.

Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.