Fixture · Premier League · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST
Chelsea
v Bournemouth
The model's read
Chelsea
42%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Bournemouth
32%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Chelsea or draw | 68.4% |
| Double chance Bournemouth or draw | 57.5% |
| Double chance either team | 74.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% |
| Chelsea over 1.5 team goals | 49.5% |
| Bournemouth over 1.5 team goals | 41.2% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 24.4% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 19.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.9% · 2-1 9.0% · 1-2 7.7% · 1-0 6.6% · 2-0 6.4%
Model readiness. Chelsea has played 5 league games this season, Bournemouth 6 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Chelsea
- Chelsea are winless in their last 3 league games (D1 L2).
- Chelsea have conceded in each of their last 21 league games.
- 5 of Chelsea's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Bournemouth
- Bournemouth are winless in their last 7 league games (D5 L2).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Bournemouth's last 6 away league games.
- Bournemouth have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Players in form
- João Pedro has 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- M. Rogers has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- E. Martínez has made 18 saves in 4 league games this season.
- M. Tavernier has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Evanilson has 0 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- Đ. Petrović has made 11 saves in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Chelsea
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | L | 0-3 | Brentford (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Hull City (H) | 0.9 - 1.4 |
| 06 Sep | L | 1-2 | Arsenal (A) | 0.4 - 2.0 |
| 30 Aug | W | 4-3 | Brighton (H) | 3.0 - 1.5 |
| 24 Aug | W | 3-2 | Fulham (A) | 1.7 - 1.3 |
| 24 May | L | 1-2 | Sunderland (A) | 0.9 - 1.8 |
Recent form — Bournemouth
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 0-1 | Liverpool (H) | — |
| 17 Sep | W | 2-1 | Real Sociedad (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Brentford (H) | 1.8 - 0.5 |
| 05 Sep | D | 2-2 | Newcastle (A) | 1.4 - 0.7 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Everton (H) | 2.2 - 1.8 |
| 23 Aug | L | 1-2 | Manchester City (A) | 0.6 - 2.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Chelsea
-0.06
xG diff/game · 1.49 for, 1.54 against
Bournemouth
+0.12
xG diff/game · 1.48 for, 1.35 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | Premier League | 2026/27 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 10–12 | LDLWW |
| Bournemouth | Premier League | 2026/27 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0.75 | 6–7 | DDDL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 3.0 / 2.5 | 0 |
| Bournemouth | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 9 meetings: Chelsea 5 wins, 4 draws, Bournemouth 0 wins — 2.33 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec 25 | Chelsea | 2-2 | Bournemouth |
| 06 Dec 25 | Bournemouth | 0-0 | Chelsea |