Fixture · Championship · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST
Derby
v Wrexham
The model's read
Derby
36%
match result
Draw
30%
match result
Wrexham
34%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Derby or draw | 65.7% |
| Double chance Wrexham or draw | 64.1% |
| Double chance either team | 70.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 35.7% |
| Wrexham over 1.5 team goals | 34.5% |
| Derby clean sheet | 29.5% |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 28.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.2% · 0-0 9.7% · 1-0 9.3% · 0-1 9.0% · 2-1 8.1%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Wrexham: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Derby
- Derby are winless in their last 4 league games (D1 L3).
Players in form
- J. Widell Zetterström has made 28 saves in 7 league games this season.
- B. Clark has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- S. Szmodics has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- A. Patterson has made 22 saves in 8 league games this season.
- K. Moore has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
- J. Ekomié has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Derby
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Birmingham (H) | 1.1 - 3.2 |
| 09 Sep | L | 0-1 | West Brom (H) | 1.3 - 0.4 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-3 | West Ham (A) | 0.1 - 3.8 |
| 01 Sep | W | 2-0 | Portsmouth (A) | 0.6 - 0.8 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-3 | Swansea (H) | 0.7 - 3.0 |
Recent form — Wrexham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Southampton (H) | 0.5 - 2.1 |
| 11 Sep | L | 0-6 | West Ham (A) | 0.4 - 3.0 |
| 08 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (H) | 1.3 - 1.5 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Swansea (A) | 0.7 - 0.7 |
| 02 Sep | W | 3-0 | Millwall (A) | 0.9 - 0.2 |
| 28 Aug | L | 1-2 | Birmingham (H) | 1.4 - 1.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Derby
-1.13
xG diff/game · 0.87 for, 2.00 against
Wrexham
-0.36
xG diff/game · 0.95 for, 1.31 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | Championship | 2026/27 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 0.571 | 6–13 | LLLWL |
| Wrexham | Championship | 2026/27 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 7–11 | LDDWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-1-3 | 0.8 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Wrexham | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-2-1 | 1.0 / 1.8 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 2 meetings: Derby 0 wins, 1 draws, Wrexham 1 wins — 2.5 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jan 26 | Derby | 1-2 | Wrexham |
| 27 Sep 25 | Wrexham | 1-1 | Derby |