Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 BST
FSV Mainz 05
v Bayer Leverkusen
The model's read
FSV Mainz 05
42%
match result
Draw
23%
match result
Bayer Leverkusen
35%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 65.5% |
| Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw | 58.0% |
| Double chance either team | 76.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.1% |
| Both teams to score | 70.8% |
| FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals | 56.8% |
| Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 team goals | 51.4% |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 17.9% |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 14.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 9.6% · 2-1 8.3% · 1-2 7.5% · 2-2 7.2% · 3-1 5.3%
Model readiness. FSV Mainz 05 has played 4 league games this season, Bayer Leverkusen 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
- 5 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- P. Tietz has scored 4 goals in 4 league games this season.
- S. Becker has 2 goals and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- K. Sano has 2 assists in 4 league games this season.
- P. Schick has scored 4 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Miguel Gutiérrez has 1 goal and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- Christian Kofane has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — FSV Mainz 05
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 4-3 | Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) | 2.8 - 3.2 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (H) | 2.1 - 2.0 |
| 06 Sep | W | 5-0 | Hamburger SV (A) | 2.8 - 0.2 |
| 29 Aug | D | 0-0 | SC Paderborn 07 (H) | 1.2 - 0.7 |
| 16 May | W | 2-0 | 1. FC Heidenheim (A) | 3.7 - 2.5 |
| 10 May | L | 1-3 | Union Berlin (H) | 1.6 - 2.7 |
Recent form — Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 2-0 | RB Leipzig (H) | — |
| 16 Sep | W | 2-0 | Celje (H) | 1.9 - 0.9 |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | FC Augsburg (A) | 2.6 - 1.1 |
| 05 Sep | W | 4-0 | Union Berlin (H) | 3.1 - 0.4 |
| 29 Aug | L | 2-3 | SV Elversberg (A) | 1.9 - 1.3 |
| 16 May | D | 1-1 | Hamburger SV (H) | 3.3 - 1.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
FSV Mainz 05
+0.68
xG diff/game · 2.23 for, 1.55 against
Bayer Leverkusen
+1.62
xG diff/game · 2.54 for, 0.92 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1.333 | 6–3 | LWD |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.333 | 8–5 | DWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 0.5 / 1.5 | 1 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 2.0 / 2.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 2 wins, 2 draws, Bayer Leverkusen 6 wins — 3.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 26 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-1 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 18 Oct 25 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3-4 | Bayer Leverkusen |