Fixture · Serie A · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Genoa
v Fiorentina
The model's read
Genoa
31%
match result
Draw
30%
match result
Fiorentina
38%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Genoa or draw | 61.7% |
| Double chance Fiorentina or draw | 68.5% |
| Double chance either team | 69.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% |
| Genoa over 1.5 team goals | 31.2% |
| Fiorentina over 1.5 team goals | 36.3% |
| Genoa clean sheet | 28.1% |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 32.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.3% · 0-0 10.4% · 0-1 10.2% · 1-0 8.9% · 1-2 8.3%
Model readiness. Genoa has played 5 league games this season, Fiorentina 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Genoa
- Genoa are winless in their last 10 league games (D3 L7).
- Genoa have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Fiorentina
- Fiorentina have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Players in form
- Milutin Osmajić has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Justin Bijlow has made 13 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Lorenzo Colombo has 2 assists in 5 league games this season.
- Franco Mastantuono has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Mateo Pellegrino has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- David De Gea has made 15 saves in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Genoa
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 1-2 | Parma (A) | 0.8 - 0.3 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Frosinone (H) | 1.9 - 1.9 |
| 04 Sep | L | 1-4 | Como (H) | 0.8 - 1.8 |
| 30 Aug | L | 0-1 | Lazio (A) | 0.6 - 1.6 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-2 | Napoli (H) | 0.6 - 0.1 |
| 24 May | L | 0-1 | Lecce (A) | 0.7 - 1.4 |
Recent form — Fiorentina
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | D | 1-1 | Napoli (H) | 0.9 - 1.4 |
| 11 Sep | W | 4-2 | Venezia (A) | 3.4 - 0.7 |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-2 | Torino (H) | 1.7 - 0.6 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-3 | Frosinone (H) | 2.1 - 1.1 |
| 24 Aug | L | 0-4 | AS Roma (A) | 0.2 - 2.7 |
| 22 May | D | 1-1 | Atalanta (H) | 0.8 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Genoa
-0.21
xG diff/game · 0.91 for, 1.12 against
Fiorentina
+0.35
xG diff/game · 1.67 for, 1.31 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | Serie A | 2026/27 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 2–8 | DLLL |
| Fiorentina | Serie A | 2026/27 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0.75 | 5–11 | WLLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 0-1-2 | 0.7 / 2.3 | 0 |
| Fiorentina | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Genoa 0 wins, 5 draws, Fiorentina 5 wins — 2.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 26 | Fiorentina | 0-0 | Genoa |
| 09 Nov 25 | Genoa | 2-2 | Fiorentina |