Fixture · Serie A · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 17:00 BST
Inter
v Parma
The model's read
Inter
69%
match result
Draw
20%
match result
Parma
11%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Inter or draw | 88.7% |
| Double chance Parma or draw | 30.9% |
| Double chance either team | 80.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% |
| Inter over 1.5 team goals | 66.4% |
| Parma over 1.5 team goals | 20.3% |
| Inter clean sheet | 43.4% |
| Parma clean sheet | 10.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 2-0 11.6% · 2-1 9.6% · 1-1 9.3% · 1-0 9.3% · 3-0 8.8%
Model readiness. Inter has played 6 league games this season, Parma 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Inter: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Inter
- Inter are unbeaten in their last 15 league games (W9 D6).
- Inter have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- Inter have averaged 3.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Parma
- Only 1 of Parma's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Parma have scored just 3 goals across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Lautaro Martínez has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- H. Çalhanoğlu has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Pio Esposito has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Edoardo Corvi has made 20 saves in 5 league games this season.
- David Romero has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Inter
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | AS Roma (A) | 2.4 - 1.7 |
| 14 Sep | W | 5-3 | Udinese (H) | 3.1 - 0.8 |
| 08 Sep | L | 1-2 | Real Madrid (A) | 1.8 - 2.9 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | Napoli (H) | 3.9 - 2.4 |
| 30 Aug | W | 1-0 | Cagliari (A) | 3.8 - 0.5 |
| 22 Aug | W | 4-1 | Monza (H) | 1.2 - 1.1 |
Recent form — Parma
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 2-1 | Genoa (H) | 0.3 - 0.8 |
| 14 Sep | L | 1-2 | Como (A) | 1.2 - 3.2 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Monza (H) | 0.7 - 1.7 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-2 | Juventus (A) | 0.2 - 1.7 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-1 | Cagliari (H) | 0.8 - 0.7 |
| 24 May | W | 1-0 | Sassuolo (H) | 1.1 - 0.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Inter
+1.57
xG diff/game · 2.86 for, 1.29 against
Parma
-0.97
xG diff/game · 0.65 for, 1.62 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | Serie A | 2026/27 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 13–6 | WWWW |
| Parma | Serie A | 2026/27 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 2–6 | LDLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 3.5 / 1.5 | 0 |
| Parma | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Inter 7 wins, 3 draws, Parma 0 wins — 3.1 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Inter | 2-0 | Parma |
| 07 Jan 26 | Parma | 0-2 | Inter |