Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 16:15 BST
Lille
v Le Havre
The model's read
Lille
53%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Le Havre
20%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Lille or draw | 79.9% |
| Double chance Le Havre or draw | 46.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.7% |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% |
| Lille over 1.5 team goals | 49.8% |
| Le Havre over 1.5 team goals | 24.4% |
| Lille clean sheet | 38.9% |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 18.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.7% · 1-0 11.1% · 2-0 10.2% · 2-1 9.6% · 0-0 8.5%
Model readiness. Lille has played 6 league games this season, Le Havre 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Lille: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Le Havre
- Le Havre are winless in their last 5 league games (D2 L3).
- Only 1 of Le Havre's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Le Havre's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- B. Özer has made 17 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Tiago Santos has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- A. Ueda has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- L. Mpasi has made 17 saves in 3 league games this season.
- M. Samatta has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Lille
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 1-2 | Nice (A) | 1.6 - 1.5 |
| 13 Sep | W | 2-0 | Estac Troyes (H) | 1.6 - 0.4 |
| 08 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Betis (H) | 0.8 - 1.8 |
| 03 Sep | W | 1-0 | Toulouse (A) | 1.2 - 3.5 |
| 28 Aug | D | 2-2 | Paris Saint Germain (H) | 1.1 - 1.2 |
| 23 Aug | W | 2-0 | Angers (A) | 1.0 - 1.3 |
Recent form — Le Havre
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 2-3 | Toulouse (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Angers (H) | 1.3 - 0.6 |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-2 | Stade Brestois 29 (H) | 2.0 - 2.4 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Lyon (A) | 0.7 - 1.6 |
| 23 Aug | L | 0-1 | Monaco (H) | 0.6 - 1.4 |
| 17 May | W | 2-0 | Lorient (A) | 1.2 - 1.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Lille
-0.27
xG diff/game · 1.31 for, 1.57 against
Le Havre
-0.34
xG diff/game · 1.15 for, 1.49 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 7–2 | WWDW |
| Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 2–4 | DLDL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-1-0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Le Havre | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-1-0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 7 meetings: Lille 5 wins, 1 draws, Le Havre 1 wins — 2.71 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Lille | 1-1 | Le Havre |
| 30 Nov 25 | Le Havre | 0-1 | Lille |