Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 19:45 BST
Lorient
v Paris FC
The model's read
Lorient
36%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Paris FC
35%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Lorient or draw | 65.2% |
| Double chance Paris FC or draw | 63.6% |
| Double chance either team | 71.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% |
| Lorient over 1.5 team goals | 38.3% |
| Paris FC over 1.5 team goals | 37.0% |
| Lorient clean sheet | 27.5% |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 26.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.7% · 0-0 8.5% · 1-0 8.4% · 2-1 8.3% · 0-1 8.2%
Model readiness. Lorient has played 5 league games this season, Paris FC 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Paris FC
- Paris FC are unbeaten in their last 6 league games (W4 D2).
Players in form
- Y. Mvogo has made 14 saves in 5 league games this season.
- P. Katseris has 0 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- L. Sinayoko has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- K. Trapp has made 10 saves in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Lorient
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 1-2 | Le Mans (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Toulouse (H) | 0.9 - 1.6 |
| 05 Sep | W | 1-0 | Lens (A) | 1.6 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-2 | Estac Troyes (H) | 1.1 - 2.1 |
| 22 Aug | D | 0-0 | Nice (A) | 0.9 - 0.9 |
| 17 May | L | 0-2 | Le Havre (H) | 1.3 - 1.2 |
Recent form — Paris FC
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Strasbourg (H) | 1.1 - 0.2 |
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Lyon (H) | 0.3 - 0.5 |
| 06 Sep | W | 3-2 | Marseille (A) | 3.3 - 1.4 |
| 30 Aug | W | 3-0 | Nice (H) | 2.7 - 0.6 |
| 22 Aug | D | 0-0 | Estac Troyes (A) | 0.8 - 0.4 |
| 17 May | W | 2-1 | Paris Saint Germain (H) | 2.2 - 0.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Lorient
-0.34
xG diff/game · 1.14 for, 1.48 against
Paris FC
+1.01
xG diff/game · 1.64 for, 0.62 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 1.25 | 4–4 | DWLD |
| Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 6–2 | DWWD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Paris FC | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 9 meetings: Lorient 5 wins, 2 draws, Paris FC 2 wins — 2.89 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr 26 | Lorient | 1-1 | Paris FC |
| 03 Oct 25 | Paris FC | 2-0 | Lorient |