Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 19:45 BST
Monaco
v Toulouse
The model's read
Monaco
39%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Toulouse
34%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Monaco or draw | 66.5% |
| Double chance Toulouse or draw | 61.0% |
| Double chance either team | 72.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% |
| Monaco over 1.5 team goals | 43.3% |
| Toulouse over 1.5 team goals | 39.1% |
| Monaco clean sheet | 25.9% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 22.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.0% · 2-1 8.7% · 1-2 8.0% · 1-0 7.6% · 0-0 7.1%
Model readiness. Monaco has played 5 league games this season, Toulouse 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Monaco
- Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W4 D1).
Toulouse
- Toulouse have conceded in each of their last 11 league games.
- 6 of Toulouse's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Toulouse's last 6 away league games.
- Toulouse have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Paris Josua Brunner has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- L. Hrádecký has made 19 saves in 5 league games this season.
- A. Golovin has 2 assists in 5 league games this season.
- C. Tengstedt has scored 3 goals in 3 league games this season.
- C. Cásseres has 0 goals and 4 assists in 5 league games this season.
- T. Jørgensen has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Monaco
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | W | 2-1 | Lens (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Strasbourg (A) | 1.1 - 1.0 |
| 04 Sep | W | 2-1 | Paris Saint Germain (A) | 0.5 - 2.3 |
| 30 Aug | W | 2-0 | Marseille (H) | 1.5 - 1.2 |
| 23 Aug | W | 1-0 | Le Havre (A) | 1.4 - 0.6 |
| 17 May | L | 4-5 | Strasbourg (A) | 1.1 - 1.5 |
Recent form — Toulouse
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 3-2 | Le Havre (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Lorient (A) | 1.6 - 0.9 |
| 03 Sep | L | 0-1 | Lille (H) | 3.5 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Stade Brestois 29 (A) | 1.1 - 2.0 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-2 | Lyon (H) | 2.6 - 0.2 |
| 10 May | W | 2-1 | Lyon (H) | 1.1 - 1.5 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Monaco
-0.18
xG diff/game · 1.11 for, 1.29 against
Toulouse
+1.13
xG diff/game · 2.21 for, 1.08 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 8–3 | WDWWW |
| Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 4–7 | DLDL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 1 |
| Toulouse | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 9 meetings: Monaco 5 wins, 2 draws, Toulouse 2 wins — 2.56 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | Toulouse | 2-2 | Monaco |
| 25 Oct 25 | Monaco | 1-0 | Toulouse |