Fixture · La Liga · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST
Real Madrid
v Villarreal
The model's read
Real Madrid
55%
match result
Draw
23%
match result
Villarreal
22%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Real Madrid or draw | 78.0% |
| Double chance Villarreal or draw | 44.8% |
| Double chance either team | 77.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.3% |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 61.7% |
| Villarreal over 1.5 team goals | 36.4% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 27.9% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 12.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.1% · 2-1 9.6% · 2-0 7.5% · 3-1 6.7% · 1-0 6.3%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Villarreal: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Real Madrid
- Real Madrid have won 6 of their last 6 home league games.
- 5 of Real Madrid's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Real Madrid have averaged 3.3 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Villarreal
- Villarreal have conceded in each of their last 21 league games.
- Both teams have scored in each of Villarreal's last 4 league games.
Players in form
- Kylian Mbappé has scored 7 goals in 7 league games this season.
- T. Courtois has made 20 saves in 7 league games this season.
- J. Bellingham has scored 3 goals in 7 league games this season.
- P. Gueye has scored 3 goals in 7 league games this season.
- Alberto Moleiro has 2 goals and 3 assists in 7 league games this season.
- N. Pépé has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Real Madrid
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 1-2 | Atletico Madrid (A) | — |
| 15 Sep | W | 3-2 | Elche (A) | 3.6 - 0.8 |
| 12 Sep | W | 4-1 | Rayo Vallecano (H) | 2.6 - 1.2 |
| 08 Sep | W | 2-1 | Inter (H) | 2.9 - 1.8 |
| 04 Sep | L | 0-1 | Real Betis (A) | 3.5 - 0.9 |
| 30 Aug | W | 4-0 | Malaga (H) | 2.3 - 0.7 |
Recent form — Villarreal
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 3-1 | Levante (H) | 4.3 - 0.5 |
| 17 Sep | W | 3-1 | Malaga (A) | 3.3 - 0.6 |
| 14 Sep | L | 1-2 | Real Betis (H) | 1.9 - 3.5 |
| 08 Sep | L | 2-3 | Borussia Dortmund (A) | 1.3 - 2.8 |
| 05 Sep | L | 2-3 | Deportivo La Coruna (H) | 1.1 - 0.8 |
| 28 Aug | L | 0-1 | Alaves (A) | 1.3 - 0.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Real Madrid
+1.80
xG diff/game · 2.57 for, 0.77 against
Villarreal
+1.01
xG diff/game · 2.27 for, 1.27 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | La Liga | 2026/27 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 17–6 | WWLWW |
| Villarreal | La Liga | 2026/27 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 0.833 | 10–11 | WLLLD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 3-0-0 | 4.0 / 0.7 | 1 |
| Villarreal | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-2-1 | 1.3 / 1.7 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Real Madrid 6 wins, 2 draws, Villarreal 2 wins — 3.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 26 | Villarreal | 0-2 | Real Madrid |
| 04 Oct 25 | Real Madrid | 3-1 | Villarreal |