Fixture · Premier League · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST
Sunderland
v Brighton
The model's read
Sunderland
36%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Brighton
37%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Sunderland or draw | 62.7% |
| Double chance Brighton or draw | 63.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% |
| Sunderland over 1.5 team goals | 44.3% |
| Brighton over 1.5 team goals | 45.1% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 21.7% |
| Brighton clean sheet | 22.2% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.2% · 1-2 8.5% · 2-1 8.3% · 2-2 6.4% · 0-1 6.3%
Model readiness. Sunderland has played 6 league games this season, Brighton 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Sunderland
- Sunderland are winless in their last 3 league games (D1 L2).
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Sunderland's last 6 home league games.
Brighton
- Brighton are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
- Brighton have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- B. Brobbey has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- P. Groß has 3 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- C. Kostoulas has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- M. Yalcouyé has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Sunderland
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 3-5 | Manchester City (A) | — |
| 16 Sep | W | 1-0 | AZ Alkmaar (H) | 2.9 - 1.5 |
| 12 Sep | L | 0-2 | Arsenal (H) | 1.8 - 1.9 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Brentford (A) | 1.7 - 1.2 |
| 30 Aug | W | 1-0 | Fulham (H) | 1.8 - 0.9 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-2 | Ipswich (A) | 0.7 - 1.6 |
Recent form — Brighton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 3-0 | Arsenal (H) | 1.3 - 1.6 |
| 13 Sep | W | 5-0 | Coventry (A) | 2.8 - 1.3 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Leeds (H) | 2.2 - 2.5 |
| 30 Aug | L | 3-4 | Chelsea (A) | 1.5 - 3.0 |
| 23 Aug | W | 4-0 | Aston Villa (H) | 3.6 - 0.3 |
| 24 May | L | 0-3 | Manchester United (H) | 0.8 - 1.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Sunderland
+0.08
xG diff/game · 1.49 for, 1.42 against
Brighton
+0.53
xG diff/game · 2.28 for, 1.75 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | Premier League | 2026/27 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 3–5 | LDWL |
| Brighton | Premier League | 2026/27 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 13–5 | WDLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Brighton | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 3.0 / 4.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 3 meetings: Sunderland 0 wins, 1 draws, Brighton 2 wins — 0.67 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 26 | Sunderland | 0-1 | Brighton |
| 20 Dec 25 | Brighton | 0-0 | Sunderland |