FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · Championship · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST

Swansea
v Norwich

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The model's read

Swansea
39%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Norwich
35%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Swansea or draw65.4%
Double chance Norwich or draw61.1%
Double chance either team73.4%
Over 1.5 goals81.1%
Over 2.5 goals57.5%
Over 3.5 goals35.0%
Both teams to score61.2%
Swansea over 1.5 team goals45.7%
Norwich over 1.5 team goals42.4%
Swansea clean sheet23.5%
Norwich clean sheet21.4%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.4% · 2-1 8.7% · 1-2 8.1% · 1-0 6.6% · 2-2 6.3%

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Rotation risk — Swansea: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.

Norwich

  • Norwich have conceded in each of their last 15 league games.
  • 5 of Norwich's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams have scored in each of Norwich's last 4 league games.

Players in form

  • A. Idah has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
  • L. Vigouroux has made 16 saves in 8 league games this season.
  • M. Yeo has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
  • M. Touré has scored 5 goals in 7 league games this season.
  • V. Kovačević has made 17 saves in 8 league games this season.
  • A. Brooks has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.

This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.

Recent form — Swansea

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
19 SepW2-1Lincoln (A)0.9 - 2.1
12 SepW3-1Burnley (H)2.6 - 1.7
08 SepL1-3Southampton (A)1.2 - 1.4
05 SepD0-0Wrexham (H)0.7 - 0.7
01 SepW2-0Watford (H)2.7 - 0.9
29 AugW3-0Derby (A)3.0 - 0.7

Recent form — Norwich

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
20 SepL3-4Bolton (H)—
12 SepL3-4Middlesbrough (A)1.8 - 2.4
09 SepW2-1Birmingham (H)1.0 - 1.6
05 SepW3-1Sheffield Utd (A)3.0 - 0.8
01 SepL0-1Stoke City (A)1.4 - 0.2
29 AugW4-1Burnley (H)2.3 - 1.4

Chance quality, most recent season

Swansea
+0.42
xG diff/game · 1.52 for, 1.10 against
Norwich
+0.48
xG diff/game · 1.88 for, 1.41 against

Where they stand

TeamLeagueSeason PosP PtsPPGGoals Form
SwanseaChampionship2026/2727142.011–5WLDWW
NorwichChampionship2026/2714791.28613–13LWWLW

The table as it stands this season.

Home and away

TeamVenueLeagueSeason W-D-L Goals for / against per gameClean sheets
SwanseahomeChampionship2026/272-2-01.3 / 0.33
NorwichawayChampionship2026/271-0-31.5 / 2.30

This season’s home and away splits.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings: Swansea 5 wins, 2 draws, Norwich 3 wins — 2.6 goals a game on average.

DateHomeScoreAway
25 Apr 26Norwich1-1Swansea
25 Oct 25Swansea2-1Norwich