Fixture · Championship · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST
Swansea
v Norwich
The model's read
Swansea
39%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Norwich
35%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Swansea or draw | 65.4% |
| Double chance Norwich or draw | 61.1% |
| Double chance either team | 73.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.0% |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% |
| Swansea over 1.5 team goals | 45.7% |
| Norwich over 1.5 team goals | 42.4% |
| Swansea clean sheet | 23.5% |
| Norwich clean sheet | 21.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.4% · 2-1 8.7% · 1-2 8.1% · 1-0 6.6% · 2-2 6.3%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Swansea: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Norwich
- Norwich have conceded in each of their last 15 league games.
- 5 of Norwich's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in each of Norwich's last 4 league games.
Players in form
- A. Idah has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
- L. Vigouroux has made 16 saves in 8 league games this season.
- M. Yeo has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- M. Touré has scored 5 goals in 7 league games this season.
- V. Kovačević has made 17 saves in 8 league games this season.
- A. Brooks has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Swansea
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Lincoln (A) | 0.9 - 2.1 |
| 12 Sep | W | 3-1 | Burnley (H) | 2.6 - 1.7 |
| 08 Sep | L | 1-3 | Southampton (A) | 1.2 - 1.4 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Wrexham (H) | 0.7 - 0.7 |
| 01 Sep | W | 2-0 | Watford (H) | 2.7 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-0 | Derby (A) | 3.0 - 0.7 |
Recent form — Norwich
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 3-4 | Bolton (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 3-4 | Middlesbrough (A) | 1.8 - 2.4 |
| 09 Sep | W | 2-1 | Birmingham (H) | 1.0 - 1.6 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-1 | Sheffield Utd (A) | 3.0 - 0.8 |
| 01 Sep | L | 0-1 | Stoke City (A) | 1.4 - 0.2 |
| 29 Aug | W | 4-1 | Burnley (H) | 2.3 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Swansea
+0.42
xG diff/game · 1.52 for, 1.10 against
Norwich
+0.48
xG diff/game · 1.88 for, 1.41 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | Championship | 2026/27 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 11–5 | WLDWW |
| Norwich | Championship | 2026/27 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 1.286 | 13–13 | LWWLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-2-0 | 1.3 / 0.3 | 3 |
| Norwich | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-0-3 | 1.5 / 2.3 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Swansea 5 wins, 2 draws, Norwich 3 wins — 2.6 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | Norwich | 1-1 | Swansea |
| 25 Oct 25 | Swansea | 2-1 | Norwich |