FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · Championship · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST

Watford
v Burnley

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The model's read

Watford
35%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Burnley
37%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Watford or draw63.1%
Double chance Burnley or draw65.3%
Double chance either team71.5%
Over 1.5 goals75.8%
Over 2.5 goals49.8%
Over 3.5 goals27.9%
Both teams to score55.5%
Watford over 1.5 team goals37.7%
Burnley over 1.5 team goals39.3%
Watford clean sheet25.7%
Burnley clean sheet27.0%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.6% · 1-2 8.4% · 0-1 8.2% · 0-0 8.2% · 2-1 8.1%

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Rotation risk — Watford: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).

Rotation risk — Burnley: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.

Watford

  • Watford have conceded in each of their last 15 league games.

Burnley

  • Burnley are winless in their last 8 league games (D4 L4).
  • Both teams have scored in each of Burnley's last 8 league games.
  • Burnley have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.

Players in form

  • F. Ravaglia has made 28 saves in 8 league games this season.
  • Amin Nabizada has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
  • M. Weiß has made 16 saves in 8 league games this season.
  • Zian Flemming has scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
  • Z. Amdouni has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.

This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.

Recent form — Watford

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
18 SepL0-1Bristol City (A)—
12 SepL1-2Stoke City (H)0.4 - 1.5
08 SepW2-1Preston (H)1.3 - 2.4
05 SepL0-1West Brom (A)1.3 - 1.1
01 SepL0-2Swansea (A)0.9 - 2.7
29 AugD1-1West Ham (H)1.6 - 0.9

Recent form — Burnley

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
19 SepD1-1Derby (H)—
12 SepL1-3Swansea (A)1.7 - 2.6
08 SepD1-1Wrexham (A)1.5 - 1.3
05 SepL1-2Bristol City (H)0.3 - 1.1
02 SepD1-1Middlesbrough (H)0.6 - 1.2
29 AugL1-4Norwich (A)1.4 - 2.3

Chance quality, most recent season

Watford
-0.66
xG diff/game · 0.94 for, 1.60 against
Burnley
-0.37
xG diff/game · 1.25 for, 1.62 against

Where they stand

TeamLeagueSeason PosP PtsPPGGoals Form
WatfordChampionship2026/2717881.07–10LLWLL
BurnleyChampionship2026/2724730.4298–16LDLDL

The table as it stands this season.

Home and away

TeamVenueLeagueSeason W-D-L Goals for / against per gameClean sheets
WatfordhomeChampionship2026/272-1-11.5 / 1.30
BurnleyawayChampionship2026/270-1-31.0 / 2.80

This season’s home and away splits.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings: Watford 2 wins, 3 draws, Burnley 5 wins — 2.0 goals a game on average.

Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.