Fixture · Championship · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST
West Brom
v Birmingham
The model's read
West Brom
35%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Birmingham
36%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance West Brom or draw | 64.4% |
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 64.9% |
| Double chance either team | 70.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% |
| West Brom over 1.5 team goals | 36.3% |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 36.6% |
| West Brom clean sheet | 27.8% |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 28.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.0% · 0-0 9.1% · 0-1 8.7% · 1-0 8.6% · 1-2 8.1%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — West Brom: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).
Rotation risk — Birmingham: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Birmingham
- Both teams have scored in each of Birmingham's last 7 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Birmingham's last 6 away league games.
- Birmingham have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Players in form
- M. O’Leary has made 27 saves in 8 league games this season.
- C. Styles has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- I. Price has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- J. Beadle has made 21 saves in 8 league games this season.
- P. Neumann has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- Carlos Vicente has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — West Brom
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 0-1 | Wolves (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | QPR (H) | 1.2 - 0.6 |
| 09 Sep | W | 1-0 | Derby (A) | 0.4 - 1.3 |
| 05 Sep | W | 1-0 | Watford (H) | 1.1 - 1.3 |
| 02 Sep | D | 1-1 | Charlton (H) | 0.6 - 0.4 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-3 | Middlesbrough (A) | 1.3 - 2.5 |
Recent form — Birmingham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Middlesbrough (H) | 1.2 - 2.1 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Derby (A) | 3.2 - 1.1 |
| 09 Sep | L | 1-2 | Norwich (A) | 1.6 - 1.0 |
| 06 Sep | D | 2-2 | Wolves (H) | 1.4 - 1.9 |
| 01 Sep | D | 1-1 | Southampton (H) | 1.6 - 1.0 |
| 28 Aug | W | 2-1 | Wrexham (A) | 1.9 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
West Brom
-0.32
xG diff/game · 1.10 for, 1.42 against
Birmingham
+0.24
xG diff/game · 1.52 for, 1.28 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | Championship | 2026/27 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 10–7 | DWWDL |
| Birmingham | Championship | 2026/27 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 10–9 | WLDDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-2-0 | 1.5 / 0.8 | 1 |
| Birmingham | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-1-1 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: West Brom 3 wins, 2 draws, Birmingham 5 wins — 2.5 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 26 | Birmingham | 0-0 | West Brom |
| 26 Nov 25 | West Brom | 1-1 | Birmingham |