FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · Serie A · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 11:30 BST

Como
v AS Roma

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The model's read

Como
33%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
AS Roma
40%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Como or draw59.6%
Double chance AS Roma or draw66.9%
Double chance either team73.6%
Over 1.5 goals81.2%
Over 2.5 goals57.7%
Over 3.5 goals35.3%
Both teams to score61.4%
Como over 1.5 team goals41.4%
AS Roma over 1.5 team goals47.0%
Como clean sheet20.5%
AS Roma clean sheet24.2%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.3% · 1-2 8.8% · 2-1 7.9% · 0-1 6.8% · 2-2 6.3%

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Rotation risk — Como: another match 3d after (2026-10-14).

Rotation risk — AS Roma: another match 3d after (2026-10-14).

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.

Como

  • Como have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
  • Como have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.

AS Roma

  • AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 12 league games (W10 D2).
  • AS Roma have won 5 of their last 6 away league games.
  • AS Roma have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 away league games.
  • AS Roma have averaged 2.5 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.

Players in form

  • Martin Baturina has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
  • Anastasios Douvikas has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
  • Assane Diao has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
  • Paulo Dybala is averaging a 8.0 match rating over 5 league games this season.
  • Donyell Malen has scored 6 goals in 5 league games this season.
  • Manu Koné has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.

This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.

Recent form — Como

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
20 SepL0-2Frosinone (A)2.2 - 2.0
14 SepW2-1Parma (H)3.2 - 1.2
10 SepW4-1RB Leipzig (H)—
04 SepW4-1Genoa (A)1.8 - 0.8
30 AugW2-1Napoli (A)1.0 - 1.4
22 AugD1-1Udinese (A)1.5 - 2.0

Recent form — AS Roma

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
19 SepD2-2Inter (H)1.7 - 2.4
14 SepW2-0Torino (A)1.9 - 0.8
10 SepD1-1Fenerbahçe (A)—
05 SepW2-1Atalanta (H)3.0 - 0.7
31 AugW4-0Lecce (A)3.2 - 0.7
24 AugW4-0Fiorentina (H)2.7 - 0.2

Chance quality, most recent season

Como
+0.49
xG diff/game · 1.95 for, 1.46 against
AS Roma
+1.54
xG diff/game · 2.51 for, 0.96 against

Where they stand

TeamLeagueSeason PosP PtsPPGGoals Form
ComoSerie A2026/2734102.59–4WWWD
AS RomaSerie A2026/2714123.012–1WWWW

The table as it stands this season.

Home and away

TeamVenueLeagueSeason W-D-L Goals for / against per gameClean sheets
ComohomeSerie A2026/270-0-00.0 / 0.00
AS RomaawaySerie A2026/271-0-04.0 / 0.01

This season’s home and away splits.

Head to head

Last 4 meetings: Como 2 wins, 0 draws, AS Roma 2 wins — 2.25 goals a game on average.

DateHomeScoreAway
15 Mar 26Como2-1AS Roma
15 Dec 25AS Roma1-0Como