Fixture · Premier League · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Crystal Palace
v Nottingham Forest
The model's read
Crystal Palace
40%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Nottingham Forest
32%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Crystal Palace or draw | 67.7% |
| Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw | 60.1% |
| Double chance either team | 72.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% |
| Crystal Palace over 1.5 team goals | 43.0% |
| Nottingham Forest over 1.5 team goals | 37.2% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 27.3% |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 23.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.2% · 2-1 8.8% · 1-0 8.0% · 1-2 7.8% · 0-0 7.5%
Model readiness. Crystal Palace has played 6 league games this season, Nottingham Forest 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Crystal Palace
- 5 of Crystal Palace's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Crystal Palace's last 6 home league games.
Nottingham Forest
- 6 of Nottingham Forest's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Nottingham Forest have averaged 2.8 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- T. Mitchell has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- D. Kamada has 0 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- D. Henderson has made 12 saves in 3 league games this season.
- M. Gibbs-White has 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 league games this season.
- M. Sels has made 11 saves in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Crystal Palace
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | D | 0-0 | Leeds (A) | — |
| 17 Sep | W | 4-0 | Lech Poznan (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 2-3 | Ipswich (H) | 0.6 - 1.7 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | Fulham (A) | 2.0 - 3.1 |
| 28 Aug | L | 1-4 | Manchester City (H) | 0.6 - 1.4 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-2 | Everton (A) | 1.6 - 1.0 |
Recent form — Nottingham Forest
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 0-1 | Coventry (H) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Aston Villa (A) | 2.3 - 0.8 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Tottenham (H) | 0.9 - 1.1 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Liverpool (A) | 2.3 - 1.8 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-1 | Leeds (H) | 0.3 - 0.3 |
| 24 May | D | 1-1 | Bournemouth (H) | 1.7 - 0.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Crystal Palace
-0.61
xG diff/game · 1.20 for, 1.82 against
Nottingham Forest
+0.47
xG diff/game · 1.39 for, 0.92 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | Premier League | 2026/27 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0.75 | 6–11 | LWLL |
| Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 2026/27 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 1.25 | 4–4 | WDDL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-0-2 | 1.5 / 3.5 | 0 |
| Nottingham Forest | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Crystal Palace 0 wins, 8 draws, Nottingham Forest 2 wins — 1.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb 26 | Nottingham Forest | 1-1 | Crystal Palace |
| 24 Aug 25 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Nottingham Forest |