Fixture · La Liga · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 BST
Elche
v Celta Vigo
The model's read
Elche
43%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Celta Vigo
28%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Elche or draw | 71.8% |
| Double chance Celta Vigo or draw | 56.5% |
| Double chance either team | 71.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.7% |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% |
| Elche over 1.5 team goals | 43.2% |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 team goals | 31.6% |
| Elche clean sheet | 31.9% |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 23.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.5% · 1-0 9.6% · 2-1 9.1% · 0-0 8.6% · 2-0 7.9%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Elche
- Both teams have scored in each of Elche's last 5 league games.
- Elche have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W1 D3).
- Only 1 of Celta Vigo's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- Fer Niño has scored 5 goals in 7 league games this season.
- M. Dituro has made 18 saves in 7 league games this season.
- Tete Morente has 0 goals and 3 assists in 7 league games this season.
- I. Radu has made 21 saves in 7 league games this season.
- Pablo Durán has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- Miguel Román has 1 goal and 2 assists in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Elche
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | W | 3-1 | Espanyol (A) | — |
| 15 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Madrid (H) | 0.8 - 3.6 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Athletic Club (A) | 0.8 - 2.4 |
| 07 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Sociedad (H) | 2.5 - 0.6 |
| 28 Aug | L | 2-3 | Racing Santander (A) | 1.0 - 1.5 |
| 23 Aug | L | 0-5 | Barcelona (H) | 0.7 - 4.1 |
Recent form — Celta Vigo
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 5-0 | Racing Santander (H) | 2.1 - 0.8 |
| 16 Sep | L | 0-1 | Omonia Nicosia (A) | 1.1 - 0.3 |
| 13 Sep | D | 1-1 | Malaga (H) | 1.9 - 0.4 |
| 07 Sep | D | 1-1 | Getafe (A) | 1.0 - 0.7 |
| 03 Sep | D | 0-0 | Real Sociedad (A) | 0.4 - 1.1 |
| 30 Aug | L | 0-2 | Athletic Club (H) | 0.6 - 2.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Elche
-0.87
xG diff/game · 1.20 for, 2.07 against
Celta Vigo
-0.27
xG diff/game · 0.98 for, 1.25 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | La Liga | 2026/27 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 0.714 | 11–17 | WLDLL |
| Celta Vigo | La Liga | 2026/27 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 0.667 | 3–6 | DDDLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-0-2 | 1.0 / 4.0 | 0 |
| Celta Vigo | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-3-0 | 0.3 / 0.3 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Elche 2 wins, 2 draws, Celta Vigo 6 wins — 2.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Celta Vigo | 3-1 | Elche |
| 28 Sep 25 | Elche | 2-1 | Celta Vigo |