Fixture · Serie A · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Lecce
v Bologna
The model's read
Lecce
26%
match result
Draw
31%
match result
Bologna
43%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Lecce or draw | 56.7% |
| Double chance Bologna or draw | 74.5% |
| Double chance either team | 68.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% |
| Lecce over 1.5 team goals | 23.5% |
| Bologna over 1.5 team goals | 36.5% |
| Lecce clean sheet | 27.9% |
| Bologna clean sheet | 39.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.4% · 0-1 12.9% · 0-0 12.4% · 0-2 9.1% · 1-0 8.9%
Model readiness. Lecce has played 5 league games this season, Bologna 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bologna
- Bologna are winless in their last 6 league games (D3 L3).
- Bologna have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Players in form
- Wladimiro Falcone has made 27 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Lassana Coulibaly has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Tiago Gabriel has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Łukasz Skorupski has made 9 saves in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Lecce
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 0-3 | AC Milan (A) | 0.2 - 1.9 |
| 13 Sep | W | 3-2 | Monza (H) | 1.1 - 2.7 |
| 07 Sep | L | 0-1 | Cagliari (A) | 0.5 - 1.6 |
| 31 Aug | L | 0-4 | AS Roma (H) | 0.7 - 3.2 |
| 23 Aug | W | 2-0 | Venezia (A) | 0.2 - 1.6 |
| 24 May | W | 1-0 | Genoa (H) | 1.4 - 0.7 |
Recent form — Bologna
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Torino (H) | 0.6 - 0.8 |
| 13 Sep | L | 0-1 | Napoli (A) | 0.2 - 1.8 |
| 06 Sep | D | 2-2 | Sassuolo (H) | 1.9 - 1.6 |
| 31 Aug | L | 0-1 | Atalanta (A) | 1.3 - 0.2 |
| 24 Aug | L | 0-1 | Lazio (H) | 1.7 - 0.6 |
| 23 May | D | 3-3 | Inter (H) | 1.4 - 1.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Lecce
-1.69
xG diff/game · 0.54 for, 2.23 against
Bologna
+0.14
xG diff/game · 1.13 for, 0.99 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | Serie A | 2026/27 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 5–7 | WLLW |
| Bologna | Serie A | 2026/27 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 2–5 | LDLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 4.0 | 0 |
| Bologna | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Lecce 0 wins, 3 draws, Bologna 7 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 26 | Bologna | 2-0 | Lecce |
| 28 Sep 25 | Lecce | 2-2 | Bologna |