Fixture · Premier League · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 BST
Liverpool
v Manchester City
The model's read
Liverpool
36%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Manchester City
36%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Liverpool or draw | 63.6% |
| Double chance Manchester City or draw | 64.0% |
| Double chance either team | 72.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% |
| Liverpool over 1.5 team goals | 40.9% |
| Manchester City over 1.5 team goals | 41.2% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 24.4% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 24.6% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.1% · 1-2 8.4% · 2-1 8.3% · 0-1 7.3% · 1-0 7.2%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Liverpool: another match 3d after (2026-10-14).
Rotation risk — Manchester City: another match 3d after (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Liverpool
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 6 league games (W2 D4).
- Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
Manchester City
- Manchester City have won their last 5 league games.
- Manchester City have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- A. Isak has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- C. Gakpo has 1 goal and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- Alisson Becker has made 14 saves in 5 league games this season.
- E. Haaland has scored 5 goals in 5 league games this season.
- A. Semenyo has 2 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- R. Cherki has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Liverpool
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 1-0 | Bournemouth (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Fulham (H) | 1.3 - 0.7 |
| 09 Sep | W | 2-1 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.6 - 0.9 |
| 04 Sep | W | 2-0 | Ipswich (A) | 0.7 - 0.8 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Nottingham Forest (H) | 1.8 - 2.3 |
| 23 Aug | D | 2-2 | Newcastle (A) | 2.2 - 1.4 |
Recent form — Manchester City
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 5-3 | Sunderland (H) | — |
| 13 Sep | W | 1-0 | Manchester United (A) | 1.1 - 1.0 |
| 08 Sep | W | 2-0 | FC Porto (A) | 2.3 - 0.3 |
| 05 Sep | W | 1-0 | Coventry (H) | 2.1 - 1.4 |
| 28 Aug | W | 4-1 | Crystal Palace (A) | 1.4 - 0.6 |
| 23 Aug | W | 2-1 | Bournemouth (H) | 2.4 - 0.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Liverpool
+0.20
xG diff/game · 1.49 for, 1.29 against
Manchester City
+0.86
xG diff/game · 1.76 for, 0.89 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | Premier League | 2026/27 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 6–4 | DWDD |
| Manchester City | Premier League | 2026/27 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 8–2 | WWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Manchester City | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 4.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Liverpool 3 wins, 2 draws, Manchester City 5 wins — 2.9 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 26 | Liverpool | 1-2 | Manchester City |
| 09 Nov 25 | Manchester City | 3-0 | Liverpool |