Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Nice
v Strasbourg
The model's read
Nice
39%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Strasbourg
34%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Nice or draw | 66.1% |
| Double chance Strasbourg or draw | 61.0% |
| Double chance either team | 72.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% |
| Nice over 1.5 team goals | 44.2% |
| Strasbourg over 1.5 team goals | 40.3% |
| Nice clean sheet | 25.0% |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 22.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.8% · 2-1 8.7% · 1-2 8.0% · 1-0 7.2% · 0-0 6.8%
Model readiness. Nice has played 5 league games this season, Strasbourg 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Strasbourg
- Strasbourg have conceded in each of their last 13 league games.
- 5 of Strasbourg's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in each of Strasbourg's last 4 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Strasbourg's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Y. Diouf has made 16 saves in 5 league games this season.
- F. Jörgensen has made 21 saves in 5 league games this season.
- S. Amo-Ameyaw has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Gessime Yassine has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Nice
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 2-1 | Lille (H) | 1.5 - 1.6 |
| 12 Sep | L | 0-1 | Auxerre (A) | 1.1 - 1.7 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Le Mans (H) | 1.1 - 1.3 |
| 30 Aug | L | 0-3 | Paris FC (A) | 0.6 - 2.7 |
| 22 Aug | D | 0-0 | Lorient (H) | 0.9 - 0.9 |
| 29 May | W | 4-1 | Saint Etienne (H) | — |
Recent form — Strasbourg
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 1-2 | Paris FC (A) | 0.2 - 1.1 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Monaco (H) | 1.0 - 1.1 |
| 06 Sep | W | 6-2 | Estac Troyes (A) | 3.0 - 2.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Lens (H) | 1.7 - 2.9 |
| 21 Aug | L | 0-4 | Marseille (A) | 0.2 - 1.8 |
| 17 May | W | 5-4 | Monaco (H) | 1.5 - 1.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Nice
-0.60
xG diff/game · 1.04 for, 1.64 against
Strasbourg
-0.73
xG diff/game · 1.21 for, 1.94 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1–5 | LDLD |
| Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 9–8 | DWWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Strasbourg | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Nice 4 wins, 4 draws, Strasbourg 2 wins — 2.5 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 26 | Strasbourg | 3-1 | Nice |
| 03 Jan 26 | Nice | 1-1 | Strasbourg |