Fixture · Serie A · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 BST
Sassuolo
v AC Milan
The model's read
Sassuolo
38%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
AC Milan
34%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Sassuolo or draw | 65.9% |
| Double chance AC Milan or draw | 62.2% |
| Double chance either team | 71.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% |
| Sassuolo over 1.5 team goals | 40.7% |
| AC Milan over 1.5 team goals | 37.9% |
| Sassuolo clean sheet | 26.8% |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 24.7% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.4% · 2-1 8.5% · 1-0 8.1% · 1-2 8.0% · 0-0 7.9%
Model readiness. Sassuolo has played 5 league games this season, AC Milan 6 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Sassuolo
- Sassuolo have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- Both teams have scored in each of Sassuolo's last 5 league games.
- 5 of Sassuolo's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Sassuolo have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
AC Milan
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W3 D2).
Players in form
- Arijanet Murić has made 21 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Vasilije Adžić has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Diego Moreira has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Alphadjo Cissè has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Adrien Rabiot has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Sassuolo
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | L | 1-2 | Monza (A) | 1.6 - 1.4 |
| 13 Sep | W | 3-2 | Juventus (H) | 0.7 - 1.0 |
| 06 Sep | D | 2-2 | Bologna (A) | 1.6 - 1.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Torino (H) | 1.9 - 1.3 |
| 23 Aug | L | 1-2 | Atalanta (A) | 2.7 - 0.7 |
| 24 May | L | 0-1 | Parma (A) | 0.9 - 1.1 |
Recent form — AC Milan
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 3-0 | Lecce (H) | 1.9 - 0.2 |
| 16 Sep | L | 0-2 | Benfica (H) | 1.0 - 0.6 |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Lazio (A) | 1.1 - 2.0 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Juventus (A) | 0.1 - 1.6 |
| 28 Aug | W | 2-0 | Venezia (H) | 2.1 - 0.7 |
| 23 Aug | W | 2-1 | Torino (A) | 1.6 - 0.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Sassuolo
+0.43
xG diff/game · 1.68 for, 1.25 against
AC Milan
+0.28
xG diff/game · 1.37 for, 1.09 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | Serie A | 2026/27 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 9–9 | LWDWL |
| AC Milan | Serie A | 2026/27 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 7–4 | DDWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| AC Milan | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 1-2-0 | 1.7 / 1.3 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Sassuolo 4 wins, 3 draws, AC Milan 3 wins — 3.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Sassuolo | 2-0 | AC Milan |
| 14 Dec 25 | AC Milan | 2-2 | Sassuolo |