Fixture · Championship · Tue 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 BST
Millwall
v Swansea
The model's read
Millwall
46%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
Swansea
28%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Millwall or draw | 72.0% |
| Double chance Swansea or draw | 53.5% |
| Double chance either team | 74.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% |
| Millwall over 1.5 team goals | 52.4% |
| Swansea over 1.5 team goals | 38.3% |
| Millwall clean sheet | 26.5% |
| Swansea clean sheet | 17.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.7% · 2-1 9.4% · 1-2 7.1% · 2-0 7.1% · 1-0 7.0%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Millwall: another match 3d after (2026-10-17).
Rotation risk — Swansea: another match 3d after (2026-10-17).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Millwall
- Millwall are winless in their last 3 league games (D2 L1).
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Millwall's last 6 home league games.
Swansea
- 5 of Swansea's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Swansea's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- L. Dykes has scored 4 goals in 8 league games this season.
- T. Arconte has scored 3 goals in 7 league games this season.
- C. Taylor has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- A. Idah has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
- L. Vigouroux has made 16 saves in 8 league games this season.
- M. Yeo has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Millwall
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | West Ham (H) | 2.7 - 1.9 |
| 15 Sep | D | 2-2 | Middlesbrough (A) | 1.7 - 1.5 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-3 | Blackburn (A) | 1.7 - 1.2 |
| 05 Sep | W | 4-0 | Bolton (H) | 2.6 - 0.9 |
| 02 Sep | L | 0-3 | Wrexham (H) | 0.2 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-5 | Southampton (A) | 1.4 - 3.6 |
Recent form — Swansea
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Lincoln (A) | 0.9 - 2.1 |
| 12 Sep | W | 3-1 | Burnley (H) | 2.6 - 1.7 |
| 08 Sep | L | 1-3 | Southampton (A) | 1.2 - 1.4 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Wrexham (H) | 0.7 - 0.7 |
| 01 Sep | W | 2-0 | Watford (H) | 2.7 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-0 | Derby (A) | 3.0 - 0.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Millwall
+0.47
xG diff/game · 1.91 for, 1.44 against
Swansea
+0.42
xG diff/game · 1.52 for, 1.10 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | Championship | 2026/27 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 13–13 | DLWLL |
| Swansea | Championship | 2026/27 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 11–5 | WLDWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-0-1 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 2 |
| Swansea | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-0-1 | 2.0 / 1.3 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Millwall 5 wins, 3 draws, Swansea 2 wins — 1.9 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jan 26 | Millwall | 2-1 | Swansea |
| 27 Sep 25 | Swansea | 1-1 | Millwall |