Fixture · Championship · Tue 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST
Stoke City
v Middlesbrough
The model's read
Stoke City
24%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Middlesbrough
49%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 51.4% |
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 75.8% |
| Double chance either team | 72.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 29.3% |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 47.9% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 19.9% |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 34.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.0% · 0-1 9.7% · 1-2 9.5% · 0-2 8.8% · 0-0 8.0%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Stoke City: another match 3d after (2026-10-17).
Rotation risk — Middlesbrough: another match 3d after (2026-10-17).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Stoke City
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W4 D1).
- 5 of Stoke City's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 6 league games (W3 D3).
Players in form
- V. Johansson has made 24 saves in 8 league games this season.
- E. Galbraith has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
- E. Bocat has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- W. Lankshear has scored 6 goals in 8 league games this season.
- R. Vítek has made 19 saves in 8 league games this season.
- S. Berhalter has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Stoke City
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Sheffield Utd (H) | 0.7 - 0.4 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Watford (A) | 1.5 - 0.4 |
| 08 Sep | D | 1-1 | Cardiff (A) | 0.8 - 2.9 |
| 05 Sep | W | 4-0 | Charlton (H) | 2.1 - 0.6 |
| 01 Sep | W | 1-0 | Norwich (H) | 0.2 - 1.4 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-4 | Wolves (A) | 0.8 - 2.7 |
Recent form — Middlesbrough
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Birmingham (A) | 2.1 - 1.2 |
| 15 Sep | D | 2-2 | Millwall (H) | 1.5 - 1.7 |
| 12 Sep | W | 4-3 | Norwich (H) | 2.4 - 1.8 |
| 05 Sep | W | 1-0 | QPR (A) | 2.5 - 1.0 |
| 02 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (A) | 1.2 - 0.6 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-1 | West Brom (H) | 2.5 - 1.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Stoke City
-0.29
xG diff/game · 0.91 for, 1.19 against
Middlesbrough
+0.77
xG diff/game · 1.89 for, 1.11 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | Championship | 2026/27 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 11–11 | WDWWL |
| Middlesbrough | Championship | 2026/27 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 14–10 | DWWDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-0-1 | 2.0 / 0.7 | 2 |
| Middlesbrough | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Stoke City 3 wins, 3 draws, Middlesbrough 4 wins — 2.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 26 | Stoke City | 1-2 | Middlesbrough |
| 30 Sep 25 | Middlesbrough | 0-0 | Stoke City |