Fixture · Championship · Wed 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 BST
Norwich
v Southampton
The model's read
Norwich
41%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Southampton
33%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Norwich or draw | 67.3% |
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 59.1% |
| Double chance either team | 73.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% |
| Norwich over 1.5 team goals | 47.3% |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 41.0% |
| Norwich clean sheet | 24.5% |
| Southampton clean sheet | 20.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.3% · 2-1 8.9% · 1-2 7.8% · 1-0 6.8% · 2-0 6.3%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Norwich: another match 2d after (2026-10-17).
Rotation risk — Southampton: another match 2d after (2026-10-17).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Norwich
- Norwich have conceded in each of their last 15 league games.
- 5 of Norwich's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in each of Norwich's last 4 league games.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Norwich's last 6 home league games.
Southampton
- Both teams have scored in each of Southampton's last 9 league games.
- Southampton have conceded in each of their last 9 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Southampton's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- M. Touré has scored 5 goals in 7 league games this season.
- V. Kovačević has made 17 saves in 8 league games this season.
- A. Brooks has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- C. Larin has scored 7 goals in 8 league games this season.
- Daniel Peretz has made 22 saves in 8 league games this season.
- F. Azaz has 3 goals and 4 assists in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Norwich
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 3-4 | Bolton (H) | 0.7 - 1.1 |
| 12 Sep | L | 3-4 | Middlesbrough (A) | 1.8 - 2.4 |
| 09 Sep | W | 2-1 | Birmingham (H) | 1.0 - 1.6 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-1 | Sheffield Utd (A) | 3.0 - 0.8 |
| 01 Sep | L | 0-1 | Stoke City (A) | 1.4 - 0.2 |
| 29 Aug | W | 4-1 | Burnley (H) | 2.3 - 1.4 |
Recent form — Southampton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 1-2 | Wrexham (A) | 2.1 - 0.5 |
| 12 Sep | W | 4-1 | Bristol City (H) | 1.7 - 2.2 |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-1 | Swansea (H) | 1.4 - 1.2 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Lincoln (A) | 0.8 - 2.3 |
| 01 Sep | D | 1-1 | Birmingham (A) | 1.0 - 1.6 |
| 29 Aug | W | 5-1 | Millwall (H) | 3.6 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Norwich
+0.37
xG diff/game · 1.73 for, 1.37 against
Southampton
+0.29
xG diff/game · 1.61 for, 1.32 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | Championship | 2026/27 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 1.286 | 13–13 | LWWLW |
| Southampton | Championship | 2026/27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 18–8 | WWDDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-0-1 | 2.3 / 1.3 | 0 |
| Southampton | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-2-1 | 1.0 / 1.3 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Norwich 2 wins, 2 draws, Southampton 6 wins — 2.9 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 26 | Southampton | 1-0 | Norwich |
| 13 Dec 25 | Norwich | 2-1 | Southampton |