Fixture · Championship · Wed 14 Oct 2026, 19:45 BST
QPR
v Derby
The model's read
QPR
48%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Derby
24%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance QPR or draw | 75.7% |
| Double chance Derby or draw | 51.5% |
| Double chance either team | 72.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% |
| QPR over 1.5 team goals | 47.8% |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 29.4% |
| QPR clean sheet | 34.0% |
| Derby clean sheet | 20.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.0% · 1-0 9.7% · 2-1 9.5% · 2-0 8.8% · 0-0 8.0%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — QPR: another match 2d after (2026-10-17).
Rotation risk — Derby: another match 2d after (2026-10-17).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
QPR
- QPR are winless in their last 4 league games (D3 L1).
- QPR are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W0 D3).
Derby
- Derby are winless in their last 4 league games (D1 L3).
Players in form
- P. Charles has made 18 saves in 8 league games this season.
- I. Chair has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- R. Burrell has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- J. Widell Zetterström has made 28 saves in 7 league games this season.
- B. Clark has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- S. Szmodics has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — QPR
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Preston (H) | 2.5 - 1.5 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | West Brom (A) | 0.6 - 1.2 |
| 09 Sep | D | 0-0 | Charlton (A) | 1.1 - 0.5 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-1 | Middlesbrough (H) | 1.0 - 2.5 |
| 02 Sep | W | 2-1 | Cardiff (H) | 2.1 - 0.6 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Blackburn (A) | 1.3 - 0.9 |
Recent form — Derby
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (A) | 1.8 - 0.5 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Birmingham (H) | 1.1 - 3.2 |
| 09 Sep | L | 0-1 | West Brom (H) | 1.3 - 0.4 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-3 | West Ham (A) | 0.1 - 3.8 |
| 01 Sep | W | 2-0 | Portsmouth (A) | 0.6 - 0.8 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-3 | Swansea (H) | 0.7 - 3.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
QPR
+0.26
xG diff/game · 1.41 for, 1.15 against
Derby
-0.83
xG diff/game · 0.98 for, 1.81 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | Championship | 2026/27 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 1.714 | 8–5 | DDLWW |
| Derby | Championship | 2026/27 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 0.571 | 6–13 | LLLWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1 |
| Derby | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-0-2 | 1.0 / 1.7 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: QPR 5 wins, 1 draws, Derby 4 wins — 2.3 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | QPR | 2-3 | Derby |
| 25 Oct 25 | Derby | 1-0 | QPR |