Fixture · Championship · Fri 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST
Burnley
v Wolves
The model's read
Burnley
34%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Wolves
38%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Burnley or draw | 62.3% |
| Double chance Wolves or draw | 65.7% |
| Double chance either team | 72.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% |
| Burnley over 1.5 team goals | 38.4% |
| Wolves over 1.5 team goals | 41.0% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 24.5% |
| Wolves clean sheet | 26.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.3% · 1-2 8.5% · 2-1 8.1% · 0-1 7.9% · 0-0 7.7%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Wolves: another match 3d after (2026-10-20).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Burnley
- Burnley are winless in their last 8 league games (D4 L4).
- Both teams have scored in each of Burnley's last 8 league games.
- Burnley have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
Wolves
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
Players in form
- M. Weiß has made 16 saves in 8 league games this season.
- Zian Flemming has scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
- Z. Amdouni has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- Fer López has scored 4 goals in 7 league games this season.
- R. Jiménez has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- M. Munetsi has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Burnley
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Derby (H) | 0.5 - 1.8 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-3 | Swansea (A) | 1.7 - 2.6 |
| 08 Sep | D | 1-1 | Wrexham (A) | 1.5 - 1.3 |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-2 | Bristol City (H) | 0.3 - 1.1 |
| 02 Sep | D | 1-1 | Middlesbrough (H) | 0.6 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-4 | Norwich (A) | 1.4 - 2.3 |
Recent form — Wolves
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 1-0 | West Brom (H) | — |
| 13 Sep | W | 1-0 | Sheffield Utd (A) | 1.6 - 0.6 |
| 06 Sep | D | 2-2 | Birmingham (A) | 1.9 - 1.4 |
| 01 Sep | L | 2-4 | West Ham (A) | 0.9 - 2.0 |
| 29 Aug | W | 4-1 | Stoke City (H) | 2.7 - 0.8 |
| 22 Aug | W | 3-1 | Preston (A) | 0.6 - 0.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Burnley
-0.49
xG diff/game · 1.15 for, 1.64 against
Wolves
+0.65
xG diff/game · 1.62 for, 0.98 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | Championship | 2026/27 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 0.429 | 8–16 | LDLDL |
| Wolves | Championship | 2026/27 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 1.833 | 14–10 | WDLWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-2-1 | 1.3 / 1.7 | 0 |
| Wolves | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 2.3 / 2.3 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Burnley 4 wins, 3 draws, Wolves 3 wins — 2.3 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 26 | Burnley | 1-1 | Wolves |
| 26 Oct 25 | Wolves | 2-3 | Burnley |